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State of the Polls
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Polls aplenty as of late in our Governor's race. Moore Information says we're all tied up, SurveyUSA says Gregoire by 3, and Rasmussen says Gregoire by 6.
Nothing much new in all that. With all polls being conducted during or after July 9th AND using a likely voter screen, it's clear the race remains in a highly competitive stasis that may well hold, at minimum, until the General Election campaign commences in full after Labor Day.
That said, a note on Moore Information. They are a well-respected brand name in local GOP circles. But, this blogger has a simple - and admittedly crude - lens through which I view their polling: add three to the spread in favor of the Democrat.
If the poll shows a tie, I give the Democrat a lead of three. If the poll shows the Democrat by four, I give them a lead of seven. You get the idea.
Fair or not, that's my read after years of seeing Moore's results. Reliable pollster, but always seems to modestly (and consistently) overstate where the GOP candidate is at.
All in all, I peg the currently Gregoire lead at about 4-5 points, with roughly 20% of the potential electorate either truly undecided or swayable between now and voting time.
My two cents, for what it's worth.
Cross-posted at Sound Politics.
