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How This Election Will Be Won
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The radio ads funded by BIAW that have raised the ire of Democrats have in many respects already served a useful purpose. Yet, this election will largely be won in a different arena.
For now, the ads coaxed Christine Gregoire herself to appear before the cameras, claiming that run-of-the-mill political ads are "rock bottom." That sets an exceptionally low benchmark, well before Gregoire's campaign or her well-funded allies launch their own efforts that will inevitably earn higher scrutiny because of her actions.
In addition, those radio ads resulted in the Gregoire campaign's first ad of the season having a peculiar tone. Generally, first ads from an incumbent are positive, touting the accomplishments of recent years. Instead of shaping the campaign narrative, however, this ad is highly defensive.
Objectively, Gregoire's ad has sufficient rhetorical strength to muddy the waters of the sex offender issue. Even beyond that fact, there are a couple reasons why the sex offender topic need not be dwelt upon at great length in the coming months.
One, Gregoire's greater weakness on public safety is bigger than sex offenders. Recall from this post:
...the aggregate record that Gregoire has to defend on public safety has some startling, gaping holes. Simply follow this series of headlines from 2007:
February 27, Seattle Times: 83 felons freed as state uses too much jail space
March 1, Seattle P-I: State routinely gambles on release of felons - offenders completing 70% of supervision cut loose
March 1, Seattle Times: Gregoire: No more felons to be freed early
March 14, Seattle Times: State DOC resumes early felon release
The details of those stories do not paint a pleasant picture, while the contrast between the 3rd and 4th headline is jarring.
Second, this election will not be won on traditional GOP issues like crime. Indeed, Republican legislative candidates have gone to that well too frequently and with exceptionally limited effect in recent election cycles.
Dino Rossi reached the point he did in 2004 because he was able to occupy ground atypical to Republicans in Washington state. He was the likable leader, identifying with the citizenry, sharing their frustration with status quo leadership in Olympia.
If Dino Rossi is to have even a chance at winning in 2008, he likewise has to establish himself as a reliable option on the issues votes care about during the election year at hand. Public safety is important, and at times it will be worth pointing out Gregoire's glaring executive deficiencies on that score.
Nonetheless, this election will be won by wooing voters who lean Democratic in many cases but whom likewise have serious angst with the current state of affairs in Olympia (and the metro Puget Sound area). That will happen if Rossi can once again flank Gregoire on an issue or two Democrats are accustomed to winning in state politics.
Notably, that will mean doing so with a conservative-minded agenda that deviates from the policies of the establishment, but it does also mean playing ball on the Democratic side of the issue field - as Rossi has already started to do on education, transportation, and even some environmental issues (like his proposed, robust incentives for purchasing hybrid vehicles). Or as Change our Gov has done as well with their "Pam" radio ad on gas taxes & congestion, turning it into a kitchen table issue.
The point being, the most successful ad campaigns on the Republican side of the Governor's race are going to move the ball forward on those issues at the forefront of voters' minds. Not by playing to stereotype merely on traditional GOP issues, which is what the media seems readily on the watch for with the BIAW and conservatives in general.
Originally posted at Sound Politics.
