Hey, I Know That Guy

One of my most trusted friends in politics, former Slade Gorton chief-of-staff Tony Williams, has an op-ed in today's Seattle Times examining the implications of Obama's youth vote.

Williams says Obama voters are more likely to either not finish their ballot after voting for President or split their tickets, presuming they come to the polls (or mail-box) with the enthusiasm shown in the primaries.

I think that's largely correct, though I don't quite share his belief the effects will be minimal. Consider that the Washington ballot will start with statewide ballot initiatives, proceed to federal offices (President & Congress), then move on to Governor. Given the margins we have to consider relevant in the latter race, even a modest number of younger voters taking the time to move from President to Congress to Governor on the ballot could be consequential.

Keep in mind, however, that the polling data Williams cites to support Rossi's competitive standing with younger voters has some additional evidence to support it. John Kerry beat George W. Bush 50% - 47%  in the 18-29 age group. In contrast, Dino Rossi won the same age bracket 55% - 45%.  That sizable 13-point swing, and the reasons for it, should not be discounted.

Another factor to keep in mind when considering the issue of ballot drop-off (voters not casting votes in down-ballot races): the large number of statewide offices. After the initiatives, federal races, and Governor on the ballot come eight more statewide offices.

Thus, legislative races are going to be buried on the back of many a mail-in ballot. Are young voters casting a general election ballot for the first time going to take the time to vote in legislative races they know little about on the back of the ballot?