Discussion(Relevant Graphics Follow The Text)
As the storm which once was Hurricane Ida (along with a TUTT signature thrown into the mix) is now set to move up the Eastern Seaboard. So while locations such as Atlanta GA, Raleigh NC, and perhaps even Philadelphia PA see some ugly, rainy, windy and miserable weather, Houston will be basking in sunshine. The ridge of high pressure looks fairly stable, which in time will allow for warmer temperatures along with the usual patches of night fog.
As we start the weekend, the core of the 500MB ridge will grow strong enough (590dcm) to be classified as a subtropical high. With winds gusty and moving out of the Gulf of Mexico, the word "humid" will re-enter the local forecast. But rain looks doubtful, since the storm building across the Intermountain Region is not likely to move out (with an attendant cold front) until Sunday night and Monday. At that time southeast Texas may be visited by thunderstorms.
There are some major question marks for weather starting next week. As you may know, the El Nino episode over the Pacific Ocean has strengthened. Not to the levels shown by some earlier forecasts (such as the CFS and ECMWF outlooks), but enough to drag the +ENSO designation into moderate category, bordering on strong. Some of the operational equations (such as the European and American schemes) are tossing loud hints at a classic El Nino storm track, with lows progressing from California to Texas and then into Georgia and Florida. There is reason to doubt that such a track will occur, since the subtropical jet stream (seen easily on the GOES WEST image) is much farther south than average for a warm Pacific Basin SST event. Also, because there are signs that a 500MB closed low may form below the Aleutian Islands after November 21. In any event, you should enjoy the current spate of nice days. Because "typical El Nino" or not, Houston and vicinity could turn very stormy in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.
The Forecast
Tuesday: Sunny, breezy, mild. Highs 75 Gilchrist to 80 East Bernard
Tuesday Night: Clear, cool. Lows 49 Hempstead to 53 Kemah
Wednesday: Sunny. High 78 Anahuac to 82 West Columbia
Wednesday Night: Clear with patchy fog. Lows 51 Rose Hill to 55 Santa Fe
Thursday: Sunny and warmer. Highs 80 Winnie to 84 Mims
Weekend Outlook
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and warm. High 83, Low 60
Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, warm, and more humid. High 84, Low 62
Sunday: Partly cloudy, windy, warm and humid with the risk of a shower late. High 86, Low 70
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Weather Forecast For Houston TX And Vicinity, Tuesday, November 10, 2009
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