Discussion
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First of all, a few words about Hurricane Ida. Yes, Ida is unusual, a rare November hurricane targeting the U.S. (the last was Gordon in 1994, which impacted Florida). But Ida is no real damage threat, since the circulation will soon be compromised by a TUTT signature over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico. The two entities should combine into one extratropical low and frontal structure, with torrential rain and gusty winds from the Gulf Coast all the way into the Mid-Atlantic states. There is a fair chance that the Ida-related storm becomes a vast closed low over the western Atlantic Ocean later this week, creating rough surf and poor conditions for maritime transit off of the East Coast.
Remember that clouds and showers which enveloped eastern Texas on Sunday were caused by the TUTT signature (a cold upper level low) and not from Ida. As the hurricane and low combine into one mid-latitude cyclone, winds will increase and dry air will move in from the north. This sets up Houston for some spectacular, albeit cool, autumn weather from Monday night into the weekend. Temperatures will start to warm up by Thursday, as an upper ridge settles in over the lower Great Plains behind the big "Ida trough". As that ridge is pushed eastward by a prominent Panhandle Hooker storm, winds will increase along with humidity this coming Saturday. Right now my call is for showers and thunderstorms to hold off until late Saturday night and Sunday.
The storm which will affect us around November 15 will be critical for a number of reasons. This system may be the start in a series of ever-deeper low disturbances that ride out of the Pacific Ocean. The subtropical jet stream is already reforming to the southwest of Baja California, so the chance for at least two major precipitation events in the extended period in Houston (November 19-23) seems quite high.
The Forecast
Monday: Mostly cloudy with light rain or showers into early afternoon. Breezy, cooler. Highs 70 Channelview to 74 Richmond
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, windy, cool. Lows 48 Spring to 52 South Houston
Tuesday: Sunny, breezy, mild. Highs 72 Willis to 76 Wallis
Tuesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 46 Barker to 50 Bacliff
Wednesday: Sunny, warmer. Highs 76 Cleveland to 80 Van Vliet
Extended Outlook
Thursday: Sunny and warm. High 80, Low 54
Friday: Sunny, hazy, warm. High 82, Low 58
Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm, humid. High 84, Low 63
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Weather Forecast For Houston TX And Vicinity, Monday, November 9, 2009
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