Discussion
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Aside from some patchy nocturnal fog, splendid fall weather is on tap through the remainder of the week. The abundant sunshine will allow for warming of the atmosphere, however. And as we enter the weekend, winds will increase and shift off of the Gulf of Mexico. So humidity will increase, and believe me when I say that Saturday and Sunday will feel like summertime. I would not at all be surprised to see some locations in Wharton, Grimes, Austin, Fort Bend and Brazoria counties surpass 90 degrees F either day.
But as a reminder that the calendar reads November and not August, a strong storm and cold front will arrive on the scene late Sunday. I am very concerned that this "Panhandle Hooker" disturbance will bring a sizable threat for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to Texas, and I cannot rule out the risk of a stronger group of convection reaching Houston on the night of November 15. Following the rain and thunder will be nice, breezy, cool day on Monday.
When you look at the various teleconnections and computer forecast, it should appear obvious that the current jet stream configuration will not last through the upcoming winter. But when do we jump off the "warm and mainly dry" train and see the start of a pattern that allows for colder air to infiltrate the U.S.? There are hints from the GFS and ECMWF versions that such a shift could begin in the 6 - 10 day range. But I have been burned by these schemes for about two weeks now, with the constant flip-flopping and various biases undermining every attempt at securing a viable prediction. This much can be said: as long as a vortex remains over the interior of Alaska or in the waters just below of our farthest north states, NO appreciable cold intrusions will enter the lower 48 states. If, however, an mAk gyre becomes situated just to the south of the Aleutian Islands, the game will change, and radically. For now, I will stick with a generally benign scenario for Houston after the thunderstorm threat exits next Monday morning.
But keep your eyes on that Alaskan cold pool!
The Forecast
Wednesday: Sunny and warm. Highs 78 Dayton to 82 Danbury
Wednesday Night: Clear with patchy fog late. Lows 54 Lake Covington to 58 Brazoria
Thursday: Sunny and warm. High 80 Crosby to 84 Alvin
Thursday Night: Clear with patchy fog late. Lows 58 Wallis to 62 Galena Park
Friday: Partly sunny, warmer and more humid. Highs 83 Security to 87 East Columbia
Extended Outlook
Saturday: Partly sunny, windy, very warm and humid. High 87, Low 66
Sunday: Partly cloudy, windy, very warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms late. High 88, Low 72
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, cooler. High 71, Low 54
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Weather Forecast For Houston TX And Vicinity, Wednesday, November 11, 2009
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