Discussion
(Relevant Graphics Follow The Text)
A rather strong area of low pressure and attendant cold front tracking eastward will attempt to introduce colder air to Texas on Wednesday. By and large, this system will fail in that attempt. The subtropical high over the Florida Peninsula still has a lot of life left in it, and the thermal boundary should stall just inland, very close to Interstate 10 on Wednesday night. Clouds, showers and thunderstorms will hold readings down somewhat from Tuesday. But by Thursday, the heat and humidity will be back full blast, courtesy of yet another impressive disturbance moving out of the southern High Plains. This system will cause winds to kick up, and before the frontal structure arrives, temperatures will once again soar into the 90s.
This second system will be strong enough to drive the cP surface boundary offshore into the Gulf of Mexico, but not by much. Cloudiness and rain will rebuild across southeastern Texas on Saturday, with temperatures staying in the low or middle 70s. On Sunday, the arrival of yet a third storm will trigger widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms. I suspect that the hot air will stay to our immediate south as we exit the weekend, with the final and strongest surge of cooler values so far this season moving in on Monday. This "Blue Norther" could drive nighttime lows into the 50s early next week, with many locations in the Midwest and Northeast seeing anything from flurries to frost and freeze warnings behind the powerful cyclone!
I included the MTSAT and GOES WEST imagery to show that the rest of October will have increased storm activity and its share of unseasonably cool temperatures. Note on the view of the Orient that in addition to Typhoon Melor connecting with the polar westerlies, tropical moisture and energy is also surging north into the jet stream from Indonesia. This deep teleconnection will likely boost chances for blocking ridges over the Pacific shoreline of Alaska and British Columbia after October 17. In addition, the subtropical wind field below Hawaii is again flaring, and the GGEM and ECMWF ensemble forecasts are suggesting this fetch could aid in the formation of a major winter-type storm over the central Great Plains during the third week of October.
Exciting stuff, huh?
The Forecast
Wednesday: Variable cloudiness, humid; showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 84 Humble to 88 New Territory
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, humid. Lows 73 Barker to 77 Gilchrist
Thursday: Partly sunny, windy, hot, humid with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 90 Jersey Village to 94 Iowa Colony
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, windy, humid with showers and thunderstorms toward dawn. Lows 72 Pinehurst to 76 Port Bolivar
Friday: Cloudy and cooler with showers and thunderstorms ending late day. Highs 80 Satsuma to 84 Hitchcock
Extended Outlook
Saturday: Cloudy, breezy and cooler with rain likely in the afternoon. High 75, Low 62
Sunday: Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. High 76, Low 65
Monday: Rain and thunder early; mostly cloudy, windy, cooler. High 70, Low 58
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Weather Forecast For Houston TX And Vicinity, Wednesday, October 7, 2009
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