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Where have you gone, Jeff Francis?

June 28, 7:46 PMColorado Rockies ExaminerRuss Oates
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Jeff Francis when he was drafted in 2002.
Richard Lam/AP
Jeff Francis is certainly no Joltin' Joe, and he certainly won't be part of a lyric in a famous song as DiMaggio was. But the question remains, where is Jeff Francis?

17-9. 2-1. The former is Jeff Francis' record in the 2007 regular season and the latter is his record from the playoffs. With the way things are going, his regular season won't be anywhere near the first number and the second will just be a dash.

This season Jeff Francis is 3-7 in 16 games started. It's a far cry from what was expected of him after a strong 2007 season.

Let's look at some numbers. Last season the NL ERA was 4.79. Francis' was 4.22. His WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitch) was 1.379. Good numbers for a pitcher who takes the mound at Coors. ERA+ is a ratio of the league's ERA to the pitcher's, Francis' being 114. A ERA+ of 100 is about average, so anything below is bad and anything above is good. 2007 NL Cy Young Award Winner Jake Peavy's ERA+ was 159, and Brandon Webb's was 156. Francis was an above-average pitcher, but nothing spectacular. Francis also had a PRC (Pitching Runs Created) of 100 in 2007 (read this for more on PRC).

Before tonight's game, Francis had a 5.65 ERA, with the league ERA at 4.60. He's over a run worse than the league average. His WHIP is 1.511 and his ERA+ is 81. He's not slightly bad, he's bad. He allowed a grand slam in tonight's game.

Francis has allowed more home runs per fly ball this season. In 2006 and 2007, 8.3% and 9.9% of fly balls went for home runs. Normally, about 11% of fly balls go for home runs, which would seem to indicate that Francis was getting good luck the previous two seasons. Before tonight's game, 14.1% of his fly balls have gone for home runs. He's had some bad luck this season, in that regard. However, that is only part of the problem. Francis continues to throw 85-MPH fastball down the middle of the plate and has failed to take control of the inner-half of the plate. He has on occasion done that, but, as with everything Rockies this season, can't repeat it.

 

Next Game: 6/29, @ Detroit, 11:05 AM MT
More About: Jeff Francis

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