Tennessee's winter outlook and predictions

November 4, 11:55 AMNashville Weather ExaminerMichael Detwiler

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Note the large size of the cold air across the U.S.
Snow-Day.org

Many of you have asked about this winter. I've done the research from looking at the past years to looking at many maps, looking the expert's predictions, and other mountains of information. It is an educated guess at best. At worst, it is just a wild guess. Based on the precipitation trend and the temperature trend, I expect we, in Middle Tennessee are in for a colder than normal winter and a wetter than normal winter.

This information will make many of you jump for joy. Let's look at some information below. Most 3-month outlooks being released right now point toward below average winter temperatures for the entire Southeastern United States. While the first couple of weeks of December look normal, the rest of winter looks quite cold. Secondly, the Climate Prediction Center predicts winter precipitation will be below normal. This doesn't jive with the last 12-month trend where we've been wetter than ever (since records have been kept going back to 1914).

Let's look at some maps. The first four images in the SLIDESHOW are courtesy of the web site, SNOW DAY.

The final two images are courtesy of the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. They came out with their Winter Outlook and it can be viewed by going here.

What would I take from these two sets of maps? First, I would note that both agree upon a colder than normal winter in Tennessee. Second, I would be concerned about our wet pattern over the last 12 months. Without a shift in the pattern, we will continue with above average precipitation. That combined with below average temperatures portend a snowy winter.

I've given you my thoughts. What are yours?