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History won't help LSU against Alabama
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You know prognosticators are being lazy when they use history as a guide without checking its relevance.
Take the LSU-Alabama game this Saturday. The ninth-ranked Tigers have a good chance to beat the third-ranked Crimson Tide, but not because they have won four straight in Tuscaloosa.
That streak is meaningless, as anyone with common sense would realize.
In 2001, LSU had Nick Saban as coach while Alabama was saddled with Dennis Franchione. The Tigers won 35-21 and did not lose again, upsetting Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide finished 6-5.
In 2003, LSU was on its way to a national championship. Alabama was in the first year of the Mike Shula era after firing Mike Price in May before he ever coached a game there. The Tigers won 27-3, and Alabama finished 4-9.
In 2005, the coaching matchup was Les Miles versus Shula. No matter what you think of Miles, he had the clear edge there. Alabama, though 9-0, was struggling on offense after losing wide receiver Tyrone Prothro to a career-ending knee injury against Florida. LSU was favored by three and won 16-13 in overtime, rallying from a 10-0 deficit at halftime.
In 2007, Miles faced Saban in an incredibly emotional game, with Saban having returned to college football as Alabama coach after leaving LSU in 2005 for the Miami Dolphins. Their teams were hardly comparable, though. LSU was on its way to its second national title in five years. Alabama was a shaky 6-2 with three victories by six or fewer points.
LSU, a seven-point favorite, won 41-34 thanks to two touchdowns in the final three minutes. Alabama finished 6-6, even losing to Louisiana-Monroe at home.
LSU was supposed to beat Alabama in three of those four games and had an overwhelming coaching advantage the one time it was an underdog.
This time, Saban is firmly entrenched at Alabama. The Crimson Tide is favored by 9 in a game that will either lock up the SEC West for Alabama or establish LSU as the favorite to get to Atlanta.
LSU can win because it has two game-breaking wide receivers (Terrance Toliver and Brandon LaFell) enjoying big years, while Alabama’s only big-time receiver (Julio Jones) has been largely invisible.
LSU can win because Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy has not thrown for 150 yards in a game since September, and the Tigers are good enough defensively to slow down all-world running back Mark Ingram.
LSU can win because it has held four consecutive opponents to 13 points or fewer.
But if you’re banking on history as a big help, let’s hope you’re not a bettor. With that type of flawed logic, you’re bank account would be really small really soon.
My SEC power rankings:
1) Florida (8-0, 6-0 SEC) – Tim Tebow is not playing at his Heisman level of the past, but he’s plenty good enough to win with the support of a terrific defense.
2) Alabama (8-0, 5-0) – Until proven otherwise, Alabama has the best defense in the country. Its numbers against the pass are sick.
3) LSU (7-1, 4-1) – The Tigers are peaking. Picking off Alabama is a monumental but manageable task.
4) Tennessee (4-4, 2-3) – The drop-off from the top three to No. 4 in the SEC is dramatic. Outback Bowl officials have to be sick at the prospect of getting a 7-5 SEC team.
5) Arkansas (4-4, 1-4) – The Hogs whipped Auburn, which whipped Tennessee, which whipped South Carolina, which whipped Ole Miss, which whipped Arkansas. Figuring out the middle of the SEC is nearly impossible.
6) Auburn (6-3, 3-3) – Handling Ole Miss at home does not make up for the inexcusable loss to Kentucky.
7) Georgia (4-4, 3-3) – The Bulldogs are thoroughly mediocre in every department.
8) South Carolina (6-3, 3-3) – If the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas, they won’t win again. Two years ago, they lost their last five. Detect a trend?
9) Ole Miss (5-3, 2-3) – By stinking up the joint this year, Jevan Snead did the NFL a huge favor. Now no team will make an idiotic mistake on him as the top pick in the draft like the Oakland Raiders did with JaMarcus Russell and the San Francisco 49ers did with Alex Smith.
10) Mississippi State (4-5, 2-3) – The Bulldogs are playing hard for new coach Dan Mullen. Beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt is the first step toward respectability.
11) Kentucky (4-4, 1-4) – the Wildcats are 6-16 in their last 22 SEC games.
12) Vanderbilt (2-7, 0-5) – The Commodores broke a 26-year bowl drought last season. Look for their next bowl appearance in 2034.
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