Baysball Examiner

Did Billy settle for beans in latest trade?

Did A’s general manager Billy Beane not get enough for pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in the six-player deal with the Cubs on Tuesday?

This deal probably means Beane realizes that the A’s can’t overtake the Angels this year, no matter what he might say to the contrary. This is a deal for the future. But at  first glance it would seem Harden, who has carried the label of future star since 2003 when he held the Angels to one run in seven innings in his second big league start, would command more than two outfielders who have bounced between the Cubs and Triple A a catcher hitting .223 in the minor leagues and a mediocre starter. The return looks even more thin when Harden is accompanied in the deal by a reliable pitcher such as Chad Gaudin. Both new acquisitions will help Chicago not only offset NL Central rival Milwuakee’s acquisition of  Indians starter C.C. Sabathia earlier this week, but could make them much more formidable in the postseason. A healthy Harden can be devastating, as he showed on June 26 when he shut the Phils out for eight innings. A hot pitcher like that can swing the balance in a short playoff series, which obviously is what the Cubs are hoping.

On the other hand in the last two starts Harden has not come up to that standard of that afternoon last month. He was far from being dominant and more ominously the radar guns of the scouts in the stands did not yield the same gaudy numbers when monitoring the fastball. Was this a symptom of midseason fatigue or the precursor of yet another injury. Since 2003 Harden has made six trips to the disabled list, including one this year. Beane obviously did not want to wait for number seven. And Harden, eligible for free agency after next season, probably is at his peak as far as trade value for the A’s.

Which brings us to the package the A’s received in return for Harden (5-1, 2.29) and Gaudin (5-3, 3.59 in 26 games, six starts). At first glance the numbers scream mediocrity, but Beane has a way of looking past things like a losing record and 4.45 ERA (Sean Gallagher); .237 and .250 averages in brief big league time this year (Eric Patterson, Matt Murton) or even a .217 average in Single A (Josh Donaldson).

Each has shown the potential to do better. Gallagher, who will join the A’s in Oakland this week and probably assume Harden’s spot in the rotation, has just a 3-4 record since his recall from the minors on May 3. But what got Beane’s attention was undoubtedly his 49 strikeouts as opposed to 22 walks in 58 2/3 innings. He had a Bay Area audition last week, losing to the Giants on July 3.

Murton had been shuttled between Triple A and the Cubs this year, hitting just a so-so .250 average in 19 games. But he showed what he could do two years ago when he hit .297 in 144 games with a .365 on base percentage. That is what the Red Sox had in mind when they drafted him in the first round in 2003. Beane thinks he still has it in him.

Patterson, who made an appearance in the 2006 Futures Game during the All-Star festivities in Pittsburgh, had a paltry .237 average with the Cubs in 13 games this season. But he tore up Triple A with a .323 average. Originally a second baseman Patterson was shifted to the outfield by the Cubs. But he could be moved back, which could become important if Mark Ellis is either traded or leaves as a free agent at year’s end.

And Donaldson, a catcher, was having his troubles in Class A Peoria, batting just .217. But what doubtless caught Beane’s eye was his 39 walks in 53 games and .335 on base average last year. Those are Money Ball numbers.

Beane refuses to define the trading market in terms of “buyers” (aka contenders) and “sellers” (aka also rans). He says that his deals do not define his view of where his team stands at the moment, but are designed to improve the team in both the short and long runs. But this is a “sellers” deal, and the returns, which could be substantial, are going to be measured in the long term rather than immediate.

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