Gustav – Son of Katrina

3 comments

August 30, 12:28 PM

by John Ryden, Global Warming Examiner

 

 

Hurricane Gustav just south of western Cuba early
on Saturday, August 30, 2008. (NOAA Photo)

Hurricane Gustav is currently a category 3 storm positioned about 200 miles east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving northwest near 12 mph.  Gustav is currently rated as a very strong Category 3 storm.

Gustav is headed towards the same warm water in the Gulf of Mexico that Katrina passed over during the last week of August three years ago where it developed into a Category 5 storm. Gustav is projected to pass over the western portion of Cuba on Saturday night heading on a projected track that will take it very close to New Orleans.

The current projections for Gustav call for it developing into a Category 4 storm when it moves just north of Cuba. It will then pass over slightly cooler water before makes landfall on the Gulf Coast late on Monday. There is an area in the southeastern Gulf called the Loop Current with very warm water that can transfer a large amount of energy to a storm. Katrina passed over this area and developed into a much larger storm more quickly than most people expected.

This will certainly raise the question again of whether global warming is increasing either the frequency or intensity of hurricanes. Hurricanes need an ocean surface temperature of at least 80 degrees to form. The North American hurricane season runs from June to November each year because this is the period when the ocean waters warm during the northern summer. Numerous studies have been done since 2005 on determining whether global warming does increase the intensity of storms. Some studies have suggested that 83 degrees is the temperature required for Category 3 and higher storms to form. Studies have also shown that the average number of hurricanes has not increased, but there are a higher percentage of Category 4 and Category 5 storms since 1970.

Hurricane Katrina turned slightly eastward before slamming into shore redirecting the storm's most potent winds and rain away from the vulnerable, low lying New Orleans area. (Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team)

It would seem sensible that if the water temperatures are warmer, then more energy would be transferred to the storms. This has serious issues for cities like New Orleans. Katrina caused billions of dollars of damage to the city by flooding. Most of the severe damage from the storm occurred east of New Orleans where the wind and storm surge pushed whole buildings off their foundations and demolished them.  Hurricane winds rotate counter-clockwise so the biggest storm surge (sea water pushed ahead of the storm) will occur on the eastern side of the storm. Gustav could track just west of New Orleans which would put the storm surge square on the city. Are the city’s levees up to handling a direct hit from a Category 3 or Category 4 storm?

If the city’s levees are only up to a Category 2 storm, then does it make sense to continue to try to protect the city from storm sizes up to Category 5 if they are going to occur more frequently? This storm has the potential to make coastal cities reevaluate where they locate buildings and what type of buildings they allow. The below sea-level areas of New Orleans may be just too expensive to maintain. (It would not be cost effective to try building miles of levees many times larger to protect against Category 5 storms)

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