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Israeli Election - February 10, 2009
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Well, ok, another update. 90% of the vote counted now. Livni in deep trouble. Kamida leads by just one mandate - 28-27. Bibi will pick up at least one in the military vote. It's Bibi/Likud's day.
Last Update - Bibi is giving a victory speech right now. I agree. Livni's Kadima did not win by a large enough number. Bibi will also pick up one or two seats from the military votes. I don't see how Olmert can ask anyone but Bibi to form the next government.
Previous Updates - Reports are coming out that Bibi and Lieberman are talking about forming a coalition. Livni seems out of the loop. UPDATE - Lieberman says he also spoke with Livni. Keeping all options open, it seems.
Scenarios developing. 1. Lieberman heading the top 2d tier party pieces together a coalition. It's possible only if Labor doesn't join Likud. Lieberman is also a divisive person that would have to virtually extort another major party like Kadima to join him. 2. Livni forms a government. Her challenge is the religious parties and their devotion to Bibi. Remember as well that Livni was previously given an opportunity to form a government but failed. This weakness still haunts her. 3. Bibi forms a government. To cement this option he needs either Lieberman or Labor. That gives him options and seems the most likely. The strength of his position will be clear if he gets within 1 or 2 mandates of Kadima after the military vote is counted. Another solution is Likud convinces Kadima to join - that would require only Shas to form a government.
To further the likelihood that Bibi will be the next PM, I am watching Israeli television - their conclusion is that Livni doesn't have enough support, even with the exit poll data, to be asked to be form the next government.
MORE EXIT POLLS. SAME STORY. Kadima up but not enough to overcome Nationalist bloc. "According to Channel 1, the right-wing bloc won 63 Knesset seats and the left wing 57; Channel 2 predicted 64 for the right and 56 for the left; and Channel 10 predicted 63 and 57 like Channel 1. / The Channel 1 poll showed Kadima winning 30 mandates, and Likud trailing closely behind with 28 seat. Israel Beiteinu was predicted to earn 14 mandates, and Labor was slated to get 13 seats. "
One additional point - the votes of soldiers are counted on a slight delay, so tonight's results are probably the best Kadima will do. Likud should pull disproportionately from that pool.
FIRST EXIT POLLS - 307PM US EST. Kadima 27 seats, Likud 25, Yisreal Beiteinu 15, Labor 13. This is a surprise that Kadima is showing so strong - but exit polls are more interesting than reliable. However, important to note is the grouping of parties between Nationalist and Leftwing Blocs. Nationalist include Likud - looking at 67 seats in the exit polls. Leftwing includes Kadima at a total of 53 seats.
UPDATE Feb 10. Readers - today is election day in Israel. The next Prime Minister will be either Bibi or Livni. Although the Israeli press continues to say that it is too close to call, I am sticking with my prediction that Bibi's Likud party will win a plurality by more than 3 seats (this is an aggressive position) and will be asked by the president to form the next government. The wild card is Lieberman and the strength his party shows. It seems that they will push Barak's Labor party to 4th in seats. That is quite remarkable.
Detailed coverage will begin at 3:00PM with exit polling data, and switch at 4:00PM to returns as they start to come in.
UPDATE. Feb 9. Latest internal polling: The secret polls run by the parties show Binyamin Netanyahu's opposition Likud holding a steady lead at 28 minus (out of 120 Knesset seats) Monday, Feb. 9, despite all-out, last-ditch campaigning for Tuesday's general election. Foreign minister Tzipi Livni's Kadima has gained one seat from 23 to 24 at the expense of Ehud Barak's Labor, which has dropped from 18 to 13-14 since Sunday. Dark horse right-wing Israel Beitenu headed by Avigdor Lieberman still rising from 17 to 19.
QUICK UPDATE - Seems the IDF is getting cranky with the Ehud Twins and Livni on the eve of the election. They have listed 8 ways the victory of Operation Cast Lead is being turned into a loss at the negotiating table with Hamas. This is good news for Bibi.
Israeli elections are this Tuesday, February 10, 2009. At this moment, it seems that Bibi’s Likud party will win a plurality by just a few seats. They also seem to be in the best position to form a majority coalition even if they come up a few seats short. Bibi and Lieberman seem to be the power brokers, but as with any plurality system, the top guy in the 2d tier – in this situation, Lieberman – holds a lot of power.
The Israeli system of elections is different from ours, so let’s set the stage first.
The Israeli political system is centered on the Knesset, similar to our House of Representatives, except there is no 2d body like our Senate. Every one of the 120 seats is up for election, and here's the fundamental difference from our system: Israelis vote only for a party, not a person. Each voter gets one vote.
Seats are assigned to parties based upon the percentage of the total vote they receive. There are no subdivisions of votes within the country as we have tallies by state or congressional district.
When you see articles about Israeli politicians being announced for upcoming elections, they are typically called out as "[Person] has been named Knesset 12th for [Party], or "[Person] is 12st slot for [Party]." They toss around the word "guaranteed" if the person is safely within the number of seats to be won by that party in the upcoming election. In our example, if after the ballots are counted that party wins 11 seats, our guy goes back to his day job.
There are so many parties that no single party wins a majority of the seats - in fact, it has never happened in the history of modern Israel. The party winning by a plurality, however, is usually given (by the President) the opportunity to form a government by forming allegiances with other parties – a simple majority of 61+ seats is needed. This is where two parties - Shas and Israel Beiteinu - are already critically important to Likud. I say “usually given” because the President will give it to the party most likely to be able to form a government, and that often is but doesn’t have to be the plurality winner.
There's some time constraints and twists and turns, but we'll save those for when we watch the post-election action.
Another advantage of winning by a plurality and forming the government is that the head of that party, Bibi for Likud, for example, becomes the Prime Minister.
The President of Israel is elected by the Knesset. To under how much a figurehead the occupier of this position is, scan your memory for much press Shimon Peres has gotten during Operation Cast Lead. Enough said. The Prime Minister runs the government.
There's a total of 34 political parties in Israel. Following is a list of the major parties, their current Knesset seats, and their major players (the “ran jointly” entries refer to the present seats):
- Party: Kadima. Current Seats: 29. Major Players: Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz, Dalia Itzik, Tzahi Hanegbi, Ronnie Bar-On, Ze'ev Boim, Meir Sheetrit, Ruhama Avraham-Balila, Avi Dichter, Marina Solodkin
- Likud – Ahi. 12. Binyamin Netanyahu, Gideon Sa'ar, Gilad Erdan, Reuven Rivlin, Bennie Begin, Moshe Kahlon, Silvan Shalom, Moshe Ya'alon, Yuval Steinitz, Leah Nass
- Labor (ran jointly with Meimad). 19. Ehud Barak, Isaac Herzog, Ophir Paz-Pines, Avishay Braverman, Shelly Yacimovich, Matan Vilna'i, Eitan Cabel, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, Yuli Tamir, Amir Peretz
- Israel Beiteinu. 11. Avigdor Lieberman, Uzi Landau, Stas Meseznikov, Yitzhak Aharonovich, Sofa Landver, Orly Levy, Danny Ayalon, David Rotem, Anastasia Michaeli, Faina Kirschenbaum
- Shas. 12. Eli Yishai, Ariel Attias, Yitzhak Cohen, Amnon Cohen, Meshulam Nahari, Ya'acov Margi, David Azoulay, Yitzhak Vaknin, Nissim Ze'ev, Haim Amsalem
- Meretz and The New Movement. 5. Haim Oron, Ilan Gilon, Nitzan Horowitz, Zehava Gal-On, Mossi Raz, Avshalom Vilan, Talia Sasson, Tzvia Greenfeld, Tzali Reshef, Issawi Freij
- United Torah Judaism. 6. Ya'acov Litzman, Moshe Gafni, Meir Porush, Uri Maklev, Menahem Eliezer Moses, Yisrael Eichler, Menahem Carmel, Ya'acov Guterman, Avraham Yosef Lazerson, Shimon Hadad
- National Union (ran jointly with National Religious). 9. Ya'acov Katz, Uri Ariel, Arye Eldad, Michael Ben-Ari, Uri Bank
- Habayit Hayehudi - The New National Religious Party (NRP). Seats counted in National Union. Daniel Herschkowitz, Zevulun Orlev, Uri Orbach, Nissan Slomiansky, Shalom Jerby
- Arab Party: Balad. 3. Jamal Zahalka, Said Nafa, Hanin Zuabi, Abbas Zakour, Oonie Tuma
- Arab Party: Hadash. 3. Muhammad Barakei, Hanna Sweid, Dov Henin, Abu Agberiah, Aida Tuma-Kalimah
- Arab Party: United Arab List-Ta'al. 4. Ibrahim Sarsour, Ahmed Tibi, Taleb a-Sanaa, Masid Gnaim, Taleb Abu Arar
- Green Party. 0. Pe'er Visner, Dror Ezra, Ariella Ringel-Hoffman, Rafi Kishon, Alex Weinreb
- Meimad-Green Movement. Seats counted in Labor. Michael Melchior, Eran Ben-Yemini, Alon Tal, Yonina Falnberg, Iris Hahn
- Pensioners. 7. Rafi Eitan, Gideon Reicher, Yossi Katz, Ya'acov Ben-Yizri, Shimrit Or
- Other parties: Israel Hazaka, Or, Green Leaf, Tzomet - None hold seats or have impact players.
The head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, Avigdor Lieberman, is an interesting guy. The constituents of the party are Russian Jews, who are rabid Pro-Israel and it seems equally Anti-Arab. There was a recent political war inside Israel during Cast Lead when some of the Arab parties' members in the Knesset starting yapping the wrong way. They were stripped of their ability to run in the February 2009 election (remember, parties run not people). The matter went quickly to the Israel Supreme Court which reinstated their inclusion. Lieberman spoke quite directly to the Arab MKs:
“You are lucky that we don't treat our political rivals the way Hamas treats its rivals.” Turning to reporters, he asked: “Do we want to give someone a license to kill Israel, from a Jewish and democratic aspect?” Lieberman added that “the debate should have ended at the Central Election Committee; I regret that it reached the High Court.”
I'm pretty clear on his message.
Since he may be a major player in the next government, let's learn Lieberman's take on the "safe passage" issue that Obama seemed to announce will happen during his recent Arab TV interview: In the statement, the Yisrael Beiteinu MKs rejected the construction of a "safe passage" between the West Bank and Gaza. "The state of Israel will not allow passage between Gaza and Judea and Samaria that transverses its sovereign territory," the Jerusalem Post quoted from statement. "This situation is congruent with the one that existed prior to June 4 1967."
I'm pretty clear on this message, too. Seems Obama has some talking to do.
How much do the Yisrael Beiteinu party voters dislike Hamas, et al.? This much:
Almost 90 percent of the survey's participants said they found the war did not meet its initial objectives. Unlike the army - which this time around enjoyed high esteem among respondents - the government was again seen to have performed poorly. Almost 75 percent of the people surveyed ranked its performance somewhere between "sufficiently capable" and "poor."
They want more.
How close is Lieberman to Bibi? This close:
Lieberman's favorable standing is complemented by a relatively protected political position, guaranteed by his non-aggression pact with Netanyahu, at a time when the political arena is once again beginning to resemble a boxing ring. Likewise, Kadima campaign strategists have also decided to lay off of Lieberman.
This is from a poll published on January 26:
The surveys give Likud some 29 seats in the 120-member parliament compared with about 25 for Kadima. Such a margin would leave Netanyahu well-placed to form a coalition government that could include partnerships with Kadima or Labour, as well as smaller religious and minority-interest groups.
In the race for 120 seats in parliament, polls conducted in the last week gave Netanyahu's Likud Party a lead of three to 12 seats over Livni's centrist Kadima party, headed by Olmert until corruption scandals forced him to call elections a year ahead of schedule. / Defense Minister Ehud Barak's left-leaning Labor Party, a junior partner in the governing coalition, is far back in the polls, even though the Gaza offensive helped Barak, as well as Livni, gain sharply higher personal approval ratings. / Although the standing of the three leading parties has changed little since the offensive, the extreme right-wing Israel Is Our Home [Yisrael Beiteinu] party has gained, pulling even with Labor in third place.
At the time, Labor was aligning with Likud so Ehud Barak could keep his job as Defense Minister. Adding Stas and Yisrael Beiteinu to the mix, and there’s 54 of the current 120 seats. Change the seats to match the current polls, and 61 seats are not hard to find. Finally, Livni/Kadima was tanking, Barak/Labor was rising, Bibi/Likud was leading overall, and Lieberman/Yisrael was rising.
For some details on the political moves, this article has good information on keeping Jerusalem unified and administration of holy sites, as well as coalition formation. Coalition with National Union confirmed:
After Netanyahu's Jerusalem Conference speech, he convened with his fellow party member Dr. Yuval Steinitz and Ichud Leumi (National Union) party Chairman Yaakov Katz. Katz asked the Likud chairman what his plans are for a coalition after the Israel elections. Netanyahu responded, "We will establish a broad coalition based on all the Zionist parties - blue and orange." [Orange is the color associated with the Ichud Leumi (National Union) party and its supporters].
But two weeks is a very long time in politics.
Leads looked favorable to Likud in a poll published on February 1. Bibi's lead was widening. According to a source in Israel Beiteinu, the poll predicted that the Likud would win some 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16. But Israel Beiteinu's voters were the most intense in their support and therefore most likely to vote, while Kadima's were the least likely to do so.
That same day, Livni started to dissemble in public: "Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said over the weekend that men work inefficiently to tally up extra hours at work." Playing the gender card?
Her party seemed to be walking away from her. Some rather direct talk:
A senior member of the ruling Kadima party was quoted as saying Friday that the dovish camp's situation in the election “appears bad, and in fact, the battle appears to be lost,” according to a report in News1.
“The renewed attacks by terror organizations in Gaza are pushing voters to the Right bloc,” he said, “especially to Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu.”
Was it really that bad? Seems so:
Senior ministers from Kadima are plotting to remove Tzipi Livni from the party's top spot in anticipation of Kadima's expected loss in the February 10 elections.
According to a report by journalist Yoav Yitzchak in News1, the process of removing Livni will be put in motion immediately after the elections – assuming the party does indeed take a beating – unless Livni resigns from the position of her own accord.
Yitzchak says that these ministers are currently biding their time quietly and abstaining from any public pronouncements because they believe that “Kadima, which currently has 29 Knesset members, is about to be routed, but in the current circumstances there is nothing to do but try and cut the losses.”
Updating to the latest information, while Bibi is still leading, the race is tightening in a few ways.
After being ridiculed as a liar by Livni, Little Ehud has actually endorsed Kadima. This comes after Bibi saw the polls tightening and withdrew his own pledge to retain him defense minister.
A central theme now seems to be the US role - Mitchell's practically useless presence and now Biden talking up the Saudi plan. Everyone seems to be suggesting that a divided Jerusalem and exiting the Golan Heights are on the table - except Bibi. Livni can deny it all she wants, but she’s tarred with the current government’s discussions on the topic. It's bound to win Bibi some votes. I'm not even going to touch the US$2 billion tunnel alternative.
Lieberman is playing the wild card befitting a pluralistic democracy. It's a real power source for him - he can make or break a coalition. But he seems to have overplayed his stage presence. His own MKs say they will back Likud. In fact, Likud holds a couple seat lead in the latest polls - typically a sure bet to be asked by the president to form the next government. But the request to form goes to the party most likely to be able to do it, and because of a few minority parties speaking out that seems to be Likud and Bibi at present even if Likud comes up short.
I don't think the Olmert endorsement of Livni means anything. That pair are the exact same leadership as is in place now - the very one that pulled the last punch on Hamas. Israelis are not happy with that.
Lieberman's folly seems just that. His baggage from an old criminal investigation getting new life seems to limit the role he can play - if any - in the Cabinet. So he is looking to maximize his power by other means.
At this stage, less than 48 hours before the polls open, it seems that Kamida needs a 3+ seat victory to be able to demand the opportunity to form the next government. That's a tall order. But it also explains why stories of Schalit's release have been circulating - anything to win, eh, Livni?
My call is that Likud wins a plurality by more than three seats and easily forms a government. I suspect Lieberman has overplayed his hand and may witness a post-election revolt in his party.
End note ... how odd can a plurality government and all the alliances be? This odd:
Perhaps the most unusual alliance in this year's election is between the Green Leaf Party, which has no seats in the Knesset, and the Pensioners' Party, which has six. Renamed the Holocaust Survivors' and Grown-Up Green Leaf Party, the party's prime issues are legalizing marijuana and pensioners' rights, especially those of Holocaust survivors. One of the party's TV ads shows party head Gil Kopatch smoking a joint at the grave of Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion.
Very odd, indeed.
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