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David Pinto
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Rays in First
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David Pinto - Baseball Examiner
The Rays moved ahead of the Red Sox Sunday with a sweep of the Orioles while Bostn was being swept by Oakland. Which team holds first place during the year may depend on which is traveling and which is home:
The Rays show a more typical home/road scoring pattern with both the offense and defense moving in the same direction away from Tropicana Field. n the Rays case, the pitching is more sensitive to the move than the hitters. The Red Sox are odd. Their batting average goes down 30 points on the road, but their OBA goes down 50 points. Is the batting background that much better at Fenway that Red Sox hitters see balls and strikes better? Or are pitchers just less intimidated outside of Fenway and are willing to throw more strikes? I would think selectivity would be one thing fairly park independent. The most puzzling thing, of course, is why Red Sox pitchers do poorly in the road? The team is actually walking more at home, giving up more home runs, and striking out fewer batters. They are, however, giving up a lower batting average. It looks like the difference comes down to pitching with men in scoring position. At home, the Red Sox allow a .225 BA with men in scoring position. On the road, .301. They've actually been in more RISP situations at home, 272 PA at Fenway vs. 249 PA on the road. In other words, the Red Sox ERA at Fenway is likely better than fielding independent pitching would predict. The Red Sox should be allowing about 4.5 runs per game at home. Even with that level of opponent scoring, the team should post a great home record. A falloff from their current .808 home winning percentage may mean trouble, as Tampa's home/road record looks sustainable. |
