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POSTED May 12, 3:52 PM
With both the Cardinals and Brewers going to a closer by committee approach (no assigned roles), what happens if it works? What if teams using their best pitchers in high leverage situations actually turns out to be a winning strategy? While I don't think Win Probability Added (WPA) is a good way to evaluate talent, I do think it's a great way to determine when to deploy pitching talent. If La Russa and Yost go into post game press conferences with, "I used X in the seventh because that was when our opponent had the highest probability of winning the game," it will give reporters plenty of food for thought.La Russa was one of the people who brought us into the whole idea of rigid roles for relievers (although others had played with the idea of assigning roles to a setup man/closer combination, with Davis/Gossage coming to mind). It would be interesting if he's the man to move us out of that mind set. The Red Sox tried this reluctantly in 2003. They were forced into this strategy by not having anyone good enough to be the closer. Boston moved to the standard model the next season by picking up Keith Foulke. Even with the committee, they game within a pitching change of making the World Series in 2003. If Milwaukee and St. Louis can pull this off, maybe the mind set will change to using the right pitcher in the right situation, rather than waiting for the ninth inning to bring in a closer with a three-run lead. I suspect pitchers will resist this, however. Right now, teams pay big money for closers. If this is seen as diminishing the need for one great pitcher to finish the game, I suspect pitchers will start complaining about need to know their roles. I hope their managers explain that there will simply be a pecking order, with the best pitcher brought in to handle the toughest situations. Relievers will then be able to use WPA as a bargaining chip, rather than the number of saves they accumulate. In that case, everybody wins. |

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