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This will not be a jobless recovery
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If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds a duck--it's a duck. So why are so many financial journalists afraid to say that this recovery is for real? It looks real (GDP at 3.5% is enough growth to add jobs), and it sound real (listen to the cheers on Wall Street). Now they are trying to convince us that jobs won't return for three years because much of this recovery is due to Government spending which will dry up and stall growth. What nonsense.
The data suggests that is not cash-for-clunkers, or tax credits for initial purchases of homes (although these actions do not hurt) or that absurd, failed stimulus program that account for this recovery-- but that businesses and consumers are reacting positively toward lower prices--meaning sustainable growth with jobs to follow.
Consider the recent numbers:
Personal income and spending are trending up
Continuing unemployment claims are clearly trending down and initial claims are way off their highs
Retail sales ex autos is trending up
Businesses are slow to react and inventories are low
Interest rates are at rock bottom and inflation rates are low
Capacity utilization is trending up (the higher this number goes the more jobs will be needed)
Leading indicators remain positive
Industrial production is trending up
Durable goods orders ex transportation are trending up
Home sales began to stabilize prior to the introduction of tax credits
I ask you, did cash-for-clunkers and the first-time home buyer tax credit account for all of this?. I don't think so.
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