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Matthew Stafford: To start or not to start?
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Matthew Stafford has shown all the tools during his short time with the Lions leading up to training camp this week. (AP Photo)
It seems like it’s been the debate since the beginning of time. Does a team sit their prize rookie quarterback or play him out of the gates? There are pros and cons to each side of this mind boggling question.
We’ve seen the good from starting right away, like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco last season, and greats from the past like Troy Aikman and John Elway. But we’ve also seen the bad of starting right away…..hello Ryan Leaf. However sitting a quarterback doesn’t necessarily mean good fortunes for the future either. Sure Phillip Rivers and Tom Brady are studs of the league right now after sitting a couple of seasons, but don’t forget about first round picks like Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith who sat at least 12 games each their first season in the NFL, and more recently Brady Quinn who sat his entire first season. Druckenmiller and Smith are out of the league and Quinn has yet to look like the All-Pro field general he was built up to be coming out of Notre Dame.
In Detroit we’ve seen the Lions try both methods with their past two first round quarterbacks Joey Harrington and Andre Ware, only to watch them both become nothing more than backups in the NFL.
There is the middle ground as well. Peyton and Eli Manning both started out of the gates with each struggling their first season. Peyton, on his way to becoming arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, had a rookie year to forget, completing only 56.7% of his passes, throwing 28 interceptions to 26 touchdowns and finishing with a 71.2 quarterback rating while his team struggled to a 3-13 record. Since that season he’s never completed lower than 62.1% of his passes, thrown more picks than touchdowns or had a QB rating lower than 84.1. He led his team to the playoffs his second year and has said numerous times that had it not been for his struggles his first year, there is no way he would have been able to progress or lead the Colts to the playoffs the following season.
His brother echoed his statement.
“There is only so much a guy can learn watching film or other players from the sideline. Eventually you have to get on the field and play to truly figure out the speed of the game and what throws you can and can’t make,” said Eli Manning. “I’m 100% confident we wouldn’t have won the Super Bowl as quickly as we did had I not played that first year.”
It can go either way. Lions fans are conditioned to think that whatever choice the organization makes will be the wrong one. We watched Ware sit for 12 games his first year, only to see him play 10 the next three and be out of the league after four short seasons. Harrington started all but two games his first season, but proved over time he simply didn’t have what it takes to be a winning starting quarterback in the NFL.
The truth is it doesn’t matter if the player sits or plays, either he’s got what it takes to make it in the NFL or he doesn’t. Alex Smith was drafted number one overall five years ago and was the starting quarterback for the 49ers in week five of his rookie season. He has since been benched while throwing 19 touchdowns to 31 interceptions, completing only 54.4% of his passes and posting a career quarterback rating of 63.5. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers, who famously sat alone in the green room at that same NFL draft waiting for his name to be called before eventually being selected by the Green Bay Packers 24th overall, sat for three full seasons prior to becoming the starting quarterback last year, tallying 28 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, a 63.6 completion percentage and a 93.8 quarterback rating.
Does that mean that had the roles been reversed and Rodgers been starting right away and Smith sat for three years Rodgers would now be the QB fighting for a job and Smith would be among the top quarterbacks in the NFC? Of course not, all it says is that Rodgers is more equipped to play in the NFL than Smith. Sure Rodgers states that sitting behind the great Brett Favre was the right thing for him and helped shape him into the football player he is now, but it’s all he knows. He never had to play prior to that, so how could he possibly say whether playing right away would have been good or bad for him? Just as Smith couldn’t say that had he been able to sit for a year or two he’d be better now for it. Either a quarterback has what it takes, or they don’t.
As Peyton Manning stated, he struggled his first season, but he never doubted he could win in the league and knew that his rookie mistakes would help him in the long run, while Phillip Rivers, who sat his first two seasons waiting for Drew Brees to move on from San Diego, also never doubted his skills and stated he was extremely prepared when he got his opportunity. Neither one of them knows how they would have reacted had their roles been reversed, but my guess is it would have played out very similar to how it is now. They both had all the skills it took and seemed to have that famous “it” factor coaches look for in quarterbacks. Either they’ve got what it takes, or they don’t.
Which brings me to Matthew Stafford; the Lions number 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. If we were to poll every Lions fan with the question should Stafford play or sit his rookie year, my guess is having him sit would win out. For some reason NFL fans have had it beaten into their brains that sitting a quarterback is the best way to develop him. Yet if you ask NFL quarterbacks, you probably wouldn’t get the same answer. It all depends on what they did to become the players they are. Ask the Manning’s, they’ll tell you playing right away is best. Ask Rodgers or Rivers, most likely they’ll side with sitting; however they’ll both probably say that they wanted to play right away.
There is no right or wrong answer, and as Eli Manning stated, there is only so much a player can learn watching film and practicing, eventually you have to get out there and see if you have what it takes. And that's my point, either you’ve got it, or you don’t.
There are two reasons I can see for not starting Stafford right away. One is if this team is built to win now and rookie mistakes from the QB position could hurt their chances of winning football games. That is obviously not the case as even Elway in his prime couldn’t get this team to more than seven wins. The other is if Stafford is so weak in his performance and shows no ability to pick up defenses or move the football, giving both him and the team absolutely no chance for success and also putting him in a position to get hurt.
No coach is going to put a player on the field, no matter where they were drafted or how much money they make if they can’t protect themselves. But from everything being said out of Allen Park leading up to training camp, that is not the case.
The news is Stafford looks legit. He’s making all the throws, he’s taking command of the huddle and he’s handling himself as he should.
I can’t imagine what it must be like for him walking into that first practice. He’s never taken a snap in the NFL, yet he’s the highest paid player on the team and the face of the franchise. NFL players have egos just like any other athlete, so it can’t be easy for an 11-year veteran who has given his body up day in and day out each and every week to come to camp and see some 21-year-old kid getting all the press and making the big bucks. But Stafford has taken the advice Peyton Manning gave him after draft day to heart.
After the draft Manning called Stafford and told him what to expect and how to earn the respect of his teammates.
“It’s a tough spot to be in,” Manning said. “You haven’t done squat, and already you’re the highest paid player on the team. Sure you were great in college, but so was everyone else in the league. NFL players don’t respect what you did in college; all they care about is your ability to lead them to wins. I told him go in there, keep his mouth shut, show that you are there to win and give it everything you’ve got. That means working hard in the classroom, watching film, in the weight room and on the field. Show the guys you are there to win, and you’ll gain their respect.”
So far that’s what Stafford has done. He has looked sharp on the field. Reports are that he’s picking up the playbook very quickly, reading defenses at a very fast rate and limiting his mistakes, which is the most important thing for a rookie. It also has been said that he has looked every bit as good, if not better than Daunte Culpepper, who came into camp lighter and in better shape than last season.
I know it’s practice and we can't read too much into it, but that's why he needs to see game action. There is only so much a player can take from practice, to truly find out what they have the Lions have to play him in games.
So the question is, if Stafford and Culpepper are equal coming out of camp, or even if Culpepper may be slightly ahead, who should get the nod in week 1? My vote goes for Stafford.
This team is not going to compete for anything except another high draft choice, so it can’t be Culpepper gives them a chance to win. A five-win season would be a huge success for first-year coach Jim Schwartz. It can’t be that Culpepper is your guy moving forward, because even if he returns to his old form from Minnesota -- which is not happening -- he’s not going to be the starter next season. So why not start Stafford?
He’s got arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Calvin Johnson. Why not let him use this first season to learn the speed of the game and build a comfort level with Johnson? The defense should be much improved, especially the linebacker corps, which should keep the team in more games during the second half. The running game will be iffy, but second-year pro Kevin Smith should be more explosive and take a big step this season taking pressure off Stafford, and Johnson looks as though he’s ready to take off to a level that few wide outs can dream of reaching. So it’s all set up for Stafford to get under center this season and take his rookie ups and downs that he will eventually have to go through since it appears this new regime is beginning to build a team that should hopefully be competing for a division title in the next three years.
Imagine Stafford starts this season, the team struggles to a 3-13 record, get the third or fourth pick in the draft next season and use it to build their offensive and defensive lines. Now the team enters next year with a defense good enough to win with, an offensive line with vets and young talent, a third-year running back who has the stuff to be among the best in the NFC, and by that point the best wide receiver in the league. But they also have a young franchise quarterback who is entering his second season as a starter and ready to lead the team to where they want to go as opposed to a QB who essentially is a rookie and about to go through his rookie struggles despite sitting for a season.
My thinking on this matter has nothing to do with what Ryan and Flacco did last season. I’m not expecting Stafford to come in and put up huge numbers right out of the gate like Ryan did for Atlanta, or lead the team to the conference championship game like Flacco did for Baltimore. Those guys are the exception to the rule. Just about every quarterback new to the NFL struggles throughout their first year. All I’m looking for is the talent and ability to make throws, and for him to get better from week to week. We look for him to learn how the NFL works. What it’s like to take a beating in the pocket all game long and having to shake it off and be ready for next week. To take the mistakes he makes one week, and use that knowledge to not make them again the next week. If he tries a throw over the middle across his body and it gets picked, make sure the next week when that throw appears in front of him he doesn’t attempt it and looks off to a different receiver. But the most important thing we should look for from him is his ability to become the leader of the team. It doesn’t happen overnight, but as the season progresses he will gain the confidence and ability to become more vocal with the guys and show the organization he has what it takes to lead this franchise to a place they haven’t been in over 50 years.
These are all things a rookie quarterback should exude throughout his first year under center. It shouldn’t be about wins and losses, since wins will be tough to get regardless of his play. It shouldn’t be about his touchdown to interception ratio. Those are things that will come with time. It should be about his ability to learn from week to week, improve his game and figure out what it takes to be an NFL quarterback.
He can't learn this sitting on the bench. He doesn’t have Drew Bledsoe, Brees or Brett Favre in front of him as Brady, Rivers and Rodgers did. He’s not on a Patriots, Chargers or Packers team competing for a playoff spot. The Lions are destined to finish last in the North once again this season and Culpepper, no matter how well he plays, is likely only good for maybe two more wins than Stafford.
Stafford is younger, more mobile and has the stronger arm. Every player on the roster knows Culpepper is only a seat warmer until Stafford gets his shot, and if this franchise wants to get to a Super Bowl, it will be Stafford who will take them there.
Should he sit or should he start? That’s the question every coach faces when it comes to developing their prized quarterback. In my mind that shouldn’t be the question that franchise's ask themselves before deciding whether to play their QB’s or sit them. The question they ask should be does he have what it takes or doesn’t he? And of course the only way to find that out is to put him on the field and see what he’s got.
For more info: Check out Detroit Lions Examiner Chris Morgan.
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