Wade faces big decision regarding Tejada

November 4, 10:04 AMHouston Astros ExaminerStephen Goff

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Six-time All-Star Miguel Tejada wants to remain in Houston, which puts the pressure on Astros owner Drayton McLane, Jr., and general manager Ed Wade to make a critical decision whether or not to keep him. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

Houston Astros All-Star shortstop Miguel Tejada continues to be a difference maker on and off the field, yet remains one of the biggest question marks for general manager Ed Wade this offseason.

The first day after the World Series concludes officially marks the beginning of the 15-day period when eligible players may elect to file for free agency.

Once the filing period begins, teams hold exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents for 15 days before that player can talk with any of the 30 MLB teams. 
  
Since Tejada just completed the final season of a six-year, $72 million contract, the 35-year-old veteran shortstop will be among the several MLB players to file for free agency. 

What are the Astros' plan regarding Tejada?
 
Tejada loves Houston

Back in June, Tejada told me he wants to stay in Houston.

At the time, the Astros were out of contention and facing the possibility of trading players such as Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez at the July 31 trade deadline. He was somewhat nervous due to all the rumors, but remained optimistic about staying in Houston.

In the end, he wasn't traded and made a run at recording 200 hits for the fourth time of his career.

Although he enjoyed his success in Oakland and Baltimore, Tejada pinpoints Houston as his favorite stop during his career.

"I enjoy my teammates and the community," Tejada said. "I have a lot going on with charities I'm involved in throughout Houston. The fans are great, everyone's good to me and my work off the field means the world to me."

It's great how Tejada wants to be an Astro, but will owner Drayton McLane, Jr., Wade or president of baseball operations Tal Smith go the extra mile to re-sign an aging superstar with declining defensive skills and decreasing power at the plate? 

That's a great question.

Pros and cons of Tejada

He's a six-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, the 2004 Home Run Derby winner, the 2005 MLB All-Star Game MVP, as well as the 2002 AL MVP with Oakland. Furthermore, Tejada represents a positive influence in the Astros' clubhouse. 

Everyone loves him -- McLane, Wade, Smith, his teammates and the coaching staff. 

This season, Tejada ranked eighth in batting average (.313), second in hits (199) and led the league with 46 doubles. 

However, he grounded into more double plays (29) than any player in the majors, and finished the year with only 14 homers and tied with Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Justin Upton for 27th in the National League with 86 RBI.

Once a 30-homer caliber player, Tejada has drifted into the horizon as a perennial power hitter and transformed into a quality contact hitter capable of producing a solid batting average.  

At 35-years old, Tejada features several positives and negatives.

Do the positives outweigh the negatives, or is it the other way around?

With Wade, manager Brad Mills, the coaching staff and assistant general managers Ricky Bennett, David Gottfried and Bobby Heck meeting in Phoenix this week to watch some of the team's prospect participate in the Arizona Fall League, the decision on what to do regarding Tejada will likely be discussed. 

Pressure falls on Wade

First, McLane and Wade need to determine their interest level in him.

Do they want Tejada to shift to third base in favor of shortstop prospect Tommy Manzella? By shifting Tejada, what about prospect Chris Johnson's future?

This could end up being the biggest decision Wade makes as the Astros general manager. He'll be judged on whether to keep Tejada or move forward without him by going with Manzella at shortstop and Johnson at third. 

It's projected that Tejada will be classified as a Type A free agent.

After making $14.8 million in 2009, there's no way Tejada will ever get offered that type of salary again. For him to continue his career, he'll have to take a significant pay cut, possibly by 50 percent, to generate a high interest level among MLB teams. 

Remember, Tejada said he wants to stay in Houston. Maybe he's willing to accept a discount and move to third base.

If McLane and Wade make Tejada an initial offer, and he declines, then the front office has to decide whether to offer him arbitration. During last offseason, the New York Yankees didn't offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu out of fear he'll accept it.

This could be the same case with the Astros.

Hypothetically, by offering Tejada arbitration, he'll probably accept it and return to Houston for the 2010 season -- making a high salary. The Astros can't afford to sign Tejada to a lucrative salary since they want to trim payroll and get younger. 

With Tejada being a Type A free agent, if he rejects arbitration, the team that signs him has to surrender its first pick to the Astros in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft, unless that pick is in the top 15.

In that case, the signing team would have to give up their second-round pick to Houston.

By rejecting arbitration, Tejada knows the Type A label can hurt him on the free-agent market, considering several teams won't be willing to give up a top draft pick in order to sign an aging veteran as a short-term solution.

In a way, one can speculate that Tejada hopes the Astros offer him arbitration.  

Ultimately, the decision comes down to McLane and Wade. With Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez eligible for arbitration, they'll each command a hefty raise. Unless Tejada's willing to take a significant pay cut, the front office must act in the best interest of the ballclub. 

Yes, McLane and Wade love Tejada, but that doesn't matter when making a business decision.

Realistically, they won't play a poker game by offering Tejada arbitration.
 
ESPN.com's Buster Olney polled an informal panel of six executives and player representatives in October to predict which Type A free agents will likely to be offered arbitration.

As a result, none of the executives or player representatives polled expect the Astros to offer Tejada arbitration. Either Tejada must be willing to accept a discount without going to arbitration, or Houston fans will probably see him wearing another uniform next season.

Prediction of Tejada's future

McLane and Wade offers him a one-year deal worth somewhere between $6-8 million, with a club option for 2011. 

Tejada declines.

Houston won't offer him arbitration, meaning he'll simply hit the free-agent market.
 
He creates interest among several teams since the signing team won't have to surrender a high draft pick to Houston.

In the end, Tejada signs a respectable contract with another team -- most likely an AL contender -- where he can DH at times, or with the St. Louis Cardinals, who were reportedly interested in trading for him back in June.

The Astros will then pursue a more affordable free-agent shortstop to fill the backup role. During Spring Training, Manzella and Johnson earn the starting jobs at shortstop and third base.