Don't expect Valverde to re-sign with Astros

November 10, 12:31 PMHouston Astros ExaminerStephen Goff

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Astros closer Jose Valverde, who led the National League in saves from 2007-08, hits the free-agent market as the top closer and should generate a significant amount of interest from playoff-caliber teams in need of help in the late innings. (AP Photo)

Houston Astros closer Jose Valverde filed for free agency Monday night, which comes as no surprise to general manager Ed Wade and the organization, according to MLB.com

With All-Star shortstop Miguel Tejada, setup man LaTroy Hawkins, as well as Aaron Boone, Darin Erstad, Mike Hampton and Jason Michaels all filing for free agency last week, Wade faces several critical decisions this offseason. 

As expected, Tejada, Hawkins and Valverde were classified as Type A free agents, meaning if they're offered arbitration and decline, the signing team will have to surrender a high draft pick to the Astros in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft.

Plan regarding Tejada and Hawkins
 
Unless Tejada's willing to take a significant pay cut, it's unlikely the Astros will offer the 35-year-old veteran shortstop arbitration out of fear he'll accept it.

Furthermore, Wade gave prospect Tommy Manzella the vote of confidence last week as the team's starting shortstop in 2010. If Tejada decides to take less money in Houston, he'll have to shift to third base.

By not offering Tejada arbitration, the 2002 AL MVP should generate a high interest level among several teams, considering the signing team won't have to surrender a draft pick to the Astros.

Despite his declining defensive skills and power numbers, Tejada still hits for a high average and led the NL in doubles this season. Sources indicate the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals or possibly the Oakland A's could be in the running to sign Tejada.

Unfortunately, the Type A status hurts Hawkins' value.

The Astros continue to indicate their interest in re-signing Hawkins, who made $3.5 million this season. Just in case they don't re-sign Valverde, the 36-year-old Hawkins possesses the ability to slide into the closer's role. 

If Houston can't reach an agreement with Hawkins during the 15-day exclusive negotiating period, there's a strong possibility the standout reliever will get offered arbitration. Hawkins knows if he rejects arbitration, it will be difficult for a player his age to attract significant interest from other teams, since they would have to surrender a high draft pick to the Astros. 

Basically, don't be surprised to see Hawkins back in Houston next season.

Valverde interesting scenario

What about Valverde?

Although the Astros want him back, it's unlikely they can afford him. The 31-year-old closer made $8 million this season and hits the free agent market as the top relief pitcher.

Valverde expects to get a multi-year deal worth somewhere in the $10-12 million per year range. The All-Star closer has made it known he wants to stay in Houston, but may be too pricey for owner Drayton McLane, Jr. 

Since the Astros want to continue rebuilding their farm system, the Valverde situation may end up being a win-win scenario for McLane, Wade and scouting director Bobby Heck.

Valverde knows the Type A label won't hurt his value on the market. He expects the Astros to offer him arbitration, but he'll likely reject it, and test the market. 

Several playoff-caliber teams such as the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays won't mind surrendering a first-round pick to the Astros in order to sign Valverde. Plus, if Valverde signs with a contender, Houston will automatically receive a first-round supplemental pick in addition to that team's top draft pick.

Hypothetically, if Valverde rejects arbitration and signs with Philly, the Astros will have their own first-round pick, Philly's first-round pick and a supplemental first-round pick in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft, which would make Heck a happy man.   

Valverde must capitalize on opportunity

Yes, it's great to have an All-Star closer, but what's the point of having a Valverde if the starting pitching can't provide opportunities for him to save ballgames.

Wade knows the Astros need starting pitching, and by not re-signing Tejada and Valverde, that frees up $22.8 million to use on raises toward Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez, as well as address the rotation.  

McLane and Wade recognize that Hawkins can serve as the team's closer, plus manager Brad Mills and Brad Arnsberg, one of the top pitching coaches in Major League Baseball, might begin grooming Felipe Paulino as a closer.

It makes sense, considering Paulino has the strongest arm in the organization and often hits the radar gun in the upper 90s.

At times, Paulino can get his fastball up to 102 mph. 

Remember, baseball is a business, and Valverde's market value has hit an all-time high. He needs to take advantage of being the top closer on the market, and seek the best possible deal. If that turns out to be in Houston, he'll be back in 2010.

However, the odds that Valverde wears an Astros uniform in 2010 are slim to none.