The long range patterns of energy flow and policy

July 1, 2:29 PMEnergy ExaminerJohn Guerrerio

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The country is shrinking as population and energy demand rise.

Conservative and optimistic predictions of clean energy's role in the US' energy flow vary widely.  Government statistics show data indicating just how shallow renewable energy's penetration into the energy sector really is.  The environmental degradation options that are a result of increased fossil fuel consumption can not be sustained given the population and energy demand predictions for 2030 and beyond.  One thing conservatives and optimists agree on is that renewables' share within the energy sector will increase both domestically and globally.

Total US energy demand will increase 19% while globally it grows by 50% by 2030; this is primarily due to growing population, but is also due to increases in energy demand from technology advancements and other improvements in standards of living.  Demand will continue to increase as living conditions in developing countries improve.

Looking at long range statistics, biomass and other renewable made up around 4% of energy demand in 2005, but by 2030 they will make up around 10%, or more depending upon how aggressive government policy regarding carbon turns out to be.

These statistics are just charts aiming at trends, but long range policy is beginning to shift, and over time the flow of energy in the US will continue traveling through more renewable sectors.

For now, we use petroleum, natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear to generate energy for transportation, industrial processes, electric power, residential and commercial applications. The amount of resources we demand depends upon the number of people demanding electric products and upon the amount of energy each electric product draws from the electric grid.

Energy demand and use can get complicated, particularly in a sector like transportation.  Currently, petroleum fuels our cars on the roads; but with an electric vehicle revolution, cars would be plugged in drawing energy from a grid that generates power predominantly from coal.  We need more energy before we plug in our cars or we will simply increase air pollution and speed up domestic environmental degradation.

By adding more wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and smart grid applications to the grid, we can generate the additional power to meet an increased demand through non-fossil fuel applications.  By drawing more electrical energy from renewables and using electricity to power our vehicles, we can reduce total US petroleum and coal use while advancing the smart grid and improving the overall transmission system infrastructure.