President Obama may/may not go to Copenhagen

November 10, 12:34 PMEnergy ExaminerJohn Guerrerio

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No hope for a deal if President Obama bails on negotiations.
Wikipedia Commons

Earlier this Fall, President Obama traveled to Copenhagen to advocate for the Olympics to be brought to his home town of Chicago, but he still remains on the fence over whether or not he will travel there to negotiate an international deal on climate and energy.

The Obama Administration has asserted the President will travel to Copenhagen in December if a deal is possible and his presence will help dealmakers reach an agreement.  "If I am confident that all the countries involved are bargaining in good faith and we are on the brink of a meaningful agreement and my presence in Copenhagen will make a difference in tipping us over edge, then certainly that's something that I will do," the President said. (Guardian)

President Obama arrives in China on November 16, after visiting Japan and Singapore.  Climate and energy are said to be some of the main topics of discussion there. (WSJ)

Whether or not the US and China can reach a significant agreement regarding climate and energy before the Copenhagen conference is but one part of crafting a broad international treaty between the 190 countries involved.  A host of other problems remain including "deep rifts over apportioning emissions curbs between rich economies and fast-growing developing nations and on the accord's architecture and legal status".

Still, by not attending negotiations in Copenhagen later this year, President Obama is certainly tipping the outcome toward failure.  His absence will give other leaders of industrialized nations clearance to not attend the negotiations themselves.  "Heads of state have to show up to the climate summit in December if we want a fair and binding climate deal. The promises that are on the table need to improve significantly, and that can not be done by delegations or environmental ministers.  If the political courage of the industrialized world's leaders like President Obama, German Chancellor Merkel, and French President Sarkozy remain missing in action, then the deal won't get done," Greenpeace indicated.  (Greenpeace, Yahoo)

If a deal in Copenhagen is not reached in December, the International Energy Agency has indicated that "the world will have to spend an extra $500 billion to cut carbon emissions for each year it delays implementing a major assault on global warming".  The pricetage on curbing emissions significantly by 2030 is already in excess of $10 trillion.  (Reuters)

Negotiators in Barcelona last week indicated that they may need more time to come to an agreement, but a firm stance and a strong showing in Copenhagen by the Obama Administration may be all that is required to push other 'fence-riding' nations toward a deal.

Showing up to the game only if you are promised a win is not the stuff that leaders are made of.