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New Jersey and Virginia Election Results
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With a electorate honed into the state of the economy as they entered the voting booths, New Jersey and Virginia elected two governors on Tuesday who promised to return fiscal sanity to their respected states. Republican Chris Christie unseated Democratic Governor John Corzine in New Jersey as he earned 62% of the crucial vote of independents. Republican Bob McDonnell with 58% of the independent vote cruised to victory in Virginia over Democratic challenger Creigh Deeds.
Republicans were quick to declare these victories a precursor to the 2010 midterm elections as independents, who went so strongly for Barrack Obama in last year presidential election, have rejected the policies of the current administration and congressional democrats. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele stated that a "Republican renaissance has begun" and these wins were a referendum on President Obama.
Independent voters in NJ and VA did not declare a referendum on Obama but rather a referendum on the government's failure to fix the economy.
In exit polls, New Jersey voters ranked high property taxes as their biggest heartburn and blamed Governor Corzine's tax and spend policies for it. Christie, without offering many specifics during the campaign, was able to take advantage of vulnerable Corzine by promising to cut spending and lower taxes. If this strategy sounds familiar, its probably because it was the same strategy President Obama used against John McCain last year as many independents declared a referendum on President Bush. The only thing the Obama campaign needed to do was to convince voters that McCain was a carbon copy of Bush, which they did without much trouble and used the reminder of the campaign to promise change without going into great detail on policy.
In Virginia, Bob McDonnell connected with independents because he campaigned against the current climate change bill in congress that would hammer the coal mining industry in the state and the federal stimulus package. McDonnell's platform of smaller government and lower spending is the real precursor of the 2010 midterm elections.
Independents, by definition, do not support either party blindly and in a down economy, will not hesitate to reject a candidate on election day who supports expanding government and increased spending. No matter what letter comes after their name. The congressional budget office (CBO) reported the national deficit in 2008 under President Bush at $459 billion dollars which at the time was a new record and voters, especially independents, took notice and eventually action in November as their worries about the economy grew with the deficit. In 2009, the CBO is estimating a new record 1.4 trillion dollar deficit and again independents are taking notice. Cristie and McDonnell were elected because they campaigned against the policies of big government and big spending during a time of economic instability.
With unemployment approaching 10%, voters are leery of any and all policies that will eventual tap into their household budgets through higher taxes or some other creative means. The stimulus package, climate change bill, and health care reform are all in the minds of voters as they represent an increase in the scope of government as well as an increase in government spending. Any politician, as proven on Tuesday, interested in self preservation will need to use the time between now and November 2010 to rethink their support for such programs or face the consequences.
After Tuesday's elections Senator Olympia Snowe said the results "certainly gives you pause on how you do things." And Senator Joe Lieberman echoed those sentiments when he stated; "they are worried we are going to spend more money. I think the one thing it says to me is that whatever we do, we better make damn sure its paid for."
Neither party has embraced the concept of fiscal responsibility in recent years despite the sentiment of the people and as a result, both parties will continue to be subjected to the ebb and flow of independent voters as we saw on Tuesday. The winner in 2010 will be the party that embraces this concept or at the very least can convince voters that they embrace it.
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