Will the Virginia 2009 Election results provide insight for Kentucky in 2010 and 2011?

November 4, 7:36 AMLouisville Nonpartisan ExaminerBrian Wallace

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Virginia Governor-Elect Bob McDonnell
AP Photo/Jason Hirschfeld

The first race that was decided on Election Day 2009 was the Commonwealth of Virginia's Gubernatorial race.  The Republican Bob McDonnell won over the Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds.  In the days leading up to the election, it became apparent to most that this would be the final outcome of the race.  On top of McDonnell's victory, the GOP was able to claim victories in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races.  The Lt. Governor's race went to the incumbent Bill Bolling over the Democrat Jody Wagner.  The Attorney General's race was won by  state Senator Ken Cuccinelli over Democrat Stephen Shannon.  All of the races in Virginia were decided by double digits, with McDonnell winning by 18 percentage points.

Virginia's current Governor, Tim Kaine, is a Democrat.  Some may have thought this may have paved the way for Deeds to replace him, but the people of Virginia had different ideas.  Kaine is not permitted to run in 2009, since Virginia's constitution will not allow Governor's to serve consecutive terms.  Kentucky's constitution was amended in the 1990's to allow Governor's to do so, which allows Governor Steve Beshear to run again in 2011.  

It is currently being debated, what impact the 2009 elections will have on a national level during the 2010 election cycle and 2011 for Kentucky's Governor. Some say that the results will show how the nation will vote in 2010. Others believe that the 2009 elections won't have as great of an impact on the elections on the future, because they are only local races.

Is it possible that Kentucky could vote along the same lines as Virginia did in this 2009 election and elect only the second Republican Governor since the 1970's?  Who would that be?  Are these election results what the Commissioner of Agriculture, Richie Farmer, is analyzing to determine whether or not he will run?  

Of course there are other races to look to for any insights into 2010 and 2011.  The closer races included the New Jersey Governor's race and the New York races (Mayor and 23rd District US Congressman).  It is too early to tell what impact, if any, these races will have.  At this point, all we have is speculation, and only time will truly tell.