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SWAC Basketball preview: Aiming not to finish low
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It's no secret, but it may just be plain embarrassing. Last year, the SWAC was the NCAA's worst conference. Even the NCAA's Division I independents had better years without the benefit of automatic cream puffs. Three SWAC schools finished above .500 and most of their victories came within the conference. Alabama State was 22-10 but had an RPI that put it near the bottom of the 200-plus Division I schools. Not helping the conference's image are the "pay" games where members take big payouts to play Division I powerhouses (see Mississippi Valley).
ASU won the SWAC tournament, but lost 58-43 to Morehead State in the dreaded play-in game. This year's tournament winner looks to be no different and the conference can probably pencil itself in for another play-in appearance.
Predicted order of finish:
1. Jackson State (18-15, 15-3 last year) -- Grant Maxey (16.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg), the SWAC Player of the Year, returns. At 69.9 points per game, the Tigers were only .3 points behind Prairie View.
2. Prairie View (17-16, 12-6) -- The Panthers led the SWAC in scoring (70.2 ppg), defense (67.7 ppg) and offensive rebounding (14.8). They return Darnell Hugee (12 ppg) and Christopher Jones (4.6 assists per game). It's been a long time since PV was so consistently competitive, so fans and alumni better support the Panthers while it lasts.
3. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (13-18, 11-7) -- All five starters return, led by all-conference guard Terrance Calvin (12 ppg, 5.5 rpg). They were only a game behind Prairie View last season.
4. Texas Southern (7-25, 7-11) -- The record doesn't show it, but thanks to DeAndre Hall (13.8 ppg), the Tigers finished strong last season.
5. Mississippi Valley (7-25, 7-11) -- The Delta Devils were outclassed inside and outside SWAC and it won't get better this year. Shannon Behling (10.4 ppg) and Julius Cheeks (9.6 ppg) might help them compete better in the conference. That's if they survive a non-conference schedule that includes Washington State, Gonzaga, Iowa State, St. Louis, Arkansas, Chattanooga, Oregon, Oregon State and Mississippi State. Ouch. This might be painful.
6. Alabama A&M (8-19, 6-12) -- Trant Simpson left prematurely, taking his 16 points per game with him. So, the load falls on Cornelius Hester. He'll need to score more than 12 a game.
7. Alabama State (22-10, 16-2) -- How do you drop this far, this fast? For starters, lose all five of your starters. Then, for good measure, lose bench players like Roland Fitch and the colorfully-named "Chief" Kickingstallionsims Jr. The play-in game may have a certain stench attached to it, but it might be a long time before the Hornets get that close to March Madness again.
8. Grambling (6-23, 4-14) -- Tied for last usually means nowhere to go but up, so I put them up. My reasoning -- guards Ariece Perkins (11.3 ppg, 3.0 assists per game) and Donald Qualls (10 ppg). They have the goods to prevent another last-place finish but only if they can fix one particularly galling aspect of the Tigers' game -- rebounding. Not a single Grambling player finished in the Top 20 in the SWAC in rebounding, meaning no one averaged more than four boards a game.
9. Alcorn State (6-25, 4-14) -- Same problem as Alabama A&M. The best player -- in this case, Troy Jackson (20 ppg) -- walked away this summer. If you don't see Jonathan Boyd's name in last year's conference stats, it's not a mistake. He'll need another 10.7 ppg to make up for Jackson.
10. Southern (8-23, 8-10) -- A lot of Jaguars will rag on me for this (especially since I'm a Panther), but Southern has endured three straight losing seasons since taking the SWAC title in 2006. Last year, they hit rock bottom with an 8-23 campaign that was the worst in school history. And how will fifth-year head coach Rob Spivery respond? With Douglas Scott, his only returning starter and, at 6.9 points per game, his highest scorer among the seven returners. Scott had 7.2 rebounds per game, which is pretty good, but he'll be surrounded by 11 (yes, 11!) newcomers all trying to fit into not just Spivery's style but life in Baton Rouge. Playing "Big Poppa" to so many probies may give Spivery a lot of gray hairs. It might also give him an eviction notice come tournament time.
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