Hillary Still Leads In Pennsylvania

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April 21, 10:41 AM

by Dan Spencer, Right Side Politics Examiner

 

 

The new Newsmax/Zogby tracking poll found Hillary gained two points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point. Hillary now leads 48% to 42%, still within the poll's 4.1 percent margin of error.

John Zogby says Hillary is positioned to pull off a double digit win in Pennsylvania:

If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly—undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton's way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama's 38%.

"She had big pickups of support in the western region, among voters 50-65, and among women. She has tightened Obama's lead among men and she maintains her Catholic base. For the first time in our poll, Clinton climbs into double digits among African Americans."

While Obama continues to lead in eastern Pennsylvania by a 53% to 37% margin, he lost ground in the central part of the state—Clinton now leads there by 16 points, up from eight points in earlier polling late last week. Clinton also expanded her edge in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, and now leads there, 56% to 33%.

Clinton has made steady progress among Pennsylvania men, and now trails Obama among the demographic by just three points—45% to 42%. Meanwhile, she has maintained a big 53% to 40% lead among women.

A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters finds Hillary with a 7% lead over Obama 51%-44%. That's up from 50%-44% in last week's Quinnipiac poll. According to Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Obama can blame his "clinging" remarks for Hillary's lead:

"Sen. Obama got off message after his bitter remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads - and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most."

A new Strategic Vision poll of likely Pennsylvania voters taken April 18-20 also finds Hillary leading Obama by 7% -- 48%-41%.

The American Research Group poll finds Hillary leading Obama 54%-41%. An ARG poll taken April 11-13  Obama leading Clinton 57%-37%.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters finds Hillary leading Obama 48%-43%. Brad Coker, the managing partner for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, doesn't expect Hillary to win by double digits:

"However, the lead doesn't indicate she's going to win by a large enough margin to make a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead."

Clinton leads among women, whites, Roman Catholics and Jews, voters older than 35, those looking for experience and those who rank Iraq, the economy or health care their top issues.

A new Suffolk University poll finds Hillary leading Obama by 10% -- 52%-42%. In another article the Washington Times, like Zogby, reports undecided voters are breaking for Hillary.

In the following video report, NBC political director Chuck Todd, discusses the Pennsylvania Democrat primary and also analyzes the undecideds:

Taken together the new polls suggest Hillary will win Pennsylvania's Democrat primary on Tuesday. The question remains, will Hillary's win be substantial enough. The two Democrat candidates' campaigns will spin the results all Tuesday night and the newspapers will decide the winner in Wednesday's headlines. To borrow a phrase from President Clinton, it's all going to come do to what the meaning of "substantial" is.

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