Prizefight Primer: Dawson-Johnson II

November 7, 12:12 AMProvidence Boxing ExaminerJoseph Roche

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As I prepare this column we are quickly approaching tonight's (Nov. 7) IBF light heavyweight championship (and WBC interim championship) bout between "Bad" Chad Dawson and Glen Johnson at the XL Center in Hartford, CT. Before I break down the fight I want to take a moment to remind everyone that I'll be ringside covering the fight live starting at 5:30 PM/EST on twitter so you can follow me there (@411JRoche). For those of you who will be watching the HBO Championship Boxing broadcast which begins at 9:30 PM/EST you can check in on the undercard action and the news from Hartford throughout the night on my twitter account. I will also have a fight recap, exclusive interviews and pictures here at the Providence Examiner after the fight. Now with the business end of taken care of let's break down my most highly anticipated fight of the year (since I won't be in Vegas next weekend):

FOR DAWSON TO WIN: There is no question that "Bad" Chad Dawson is the brightest star in the watered down light heavyweight division. HBO paid a hefty sum to secure the second Dawson/Tarver fight which was a snoozefest, and now Dawson needs to pay off that investment with a good performance in his hometown. Dawson should follow his game plan from the first Johnson fight, with some minor adjustments. Dawson throws lightning fast combinations, uses his jab very effectively and has the lateral speed to keep Johnson off of him, while delivering some solid punishment of his own. The biggest problem that Dawson runs into is that he settles for standing in front of Johnson and exchanging punches with him - that plays right into the strategy of the 40 year old "Road Warrior" and would be the biggest mistake that Dawson could make. I have a feel that he'll use his jab effectively, throw his quick combinations and move around the outside of the ring for the duration of the fight to score points, rack up rounds and drain the life out of the legs of the much older Johnson.

FOR JOHNSON TO WIN: Glen Johnson has a granite chin - he's only been stopped once, and that was by Bernard Hopkins. It's his ability to stay on his feet that allows Johnson to take changes, walk straight in on someone like Dawson (who doesn't have great power for a light heavyweight) and attempt to out muscle, and outwork Dawson on the inside. In their first fight the biggest mistake that Johnson made was that instead of cutting off the ring and using lateral movement, he chased Dawson around the ring - cutting off his own effectiveness and tiring himself out in the process. It warrants mentioning that Johnson did hurt Dawson in the first fight, so he knows that if he can catch Dawson he could surprise some people and KO the 27 year old champion. Dawson has been down before, he has a suspect chin so the strategy for Johnson has to be to cut the ring in half, make Dawson fight him in a phone booth and hope that he can catch him, drop him and leave Hartford with the light heavyweight championship.

MY PREDICTION: I predict that this is going to be a knock down, drag out, 12 round affair. Chad Dawson told me as much when I spoke to him at the open workout when he reminded me that Johnson hasn't been down since the B-Hop fight and he's not going into this fight looking for the KO. I think that Johnson is a great warrior, and he will drag Dawson into the deepest end of the pool so to speak, but in the end Dawson is too quick and too good to fall to Johnson on this night. I scored the first fight 115-114 in favor of Dawson and I don't think "Bad" Chad fought a particularly good fight. I think both guys could improve on their previous meeting, but all things being equal I think Dawson's improvements will just make the fight more one sided. At the end of the night I think we'll be talking about this meeting as a sleeper pick for Fight of the Year, but I expect "Bad" Chad Dawson to reign supreme when the final bell tolls on Saturday night.

FINAL NOTE: I hope you all check in on the twitter account (@411JRoche) throughout the evening as I will be bringing you all the latest information from the XL Center.