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Is Afghanistan winnable?
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Some within the White House fear Afghanistan is a potential Vietnam. Any conflict has the potential for disaster if it lacks direction and the military lacks proper support from the government. Despite administration misgivings, Afghanistan has been conquered and subjugated several times in its history. With this basis, Afghanistan is a winnable war. However, the United States needs to avoid British and Soviet mistakes made during their misadventures.
Afghanistan is located along ancient trade routes which has made it strategically important. As a result, the area has been conquered by the Persians, Alexander the Great, the Parthians, the Seleucids, the Turks, the Muslims, and the Mongols. In the modern era, the British and Soviets engaged in failed military operations within Afghanistan. The United States is currently at war in the country.
Despite being conquered and occupied on many occasions, Afghanistan is often difficult to control. Persian control collapsed under the weight of Alexander’s invasion. The Greeks lost control after they left. The Seleucids decided to surrender the area to the Hindus. In-fighting ended Hindu-Mauryan control and Afghanistan became a battleground for various powers. Eventually, Islam united the country.
Islam provided a unifying force during the Middle Ages. It provided a common ideology for the people. It took several hundred years before the Muslims fully unified Afghanistan. They launched the invasion in 642, but the country did not submit until 1021. Unity lasted two centuries and then the Mongols came.
Genghis Khan and the Mongols ran over the Islamic Empires. Afghanistan did not escape the devastation. As the Mongols expanded, populations were decimated. While in Afghanistan, Khan killed everyone in the cities of Herat and Balkh. Afghanis moved away from the cities and began living in the country. The people became more and more agricultural and rural. In many respects, Afghanistan never recovered from Genghis Khan’s 13th century invasion. Following the Mongol demise around 1500, Afghanistan spent the next 500 years bouncing from empire to empire. No single entity ruled Afghanistan for very long.
In the nineteenth century, Britain began a century of imperial involvement in the country. Britain worried the Russians would move into Afghanistan. During this period, lesser nations and territories were considered little more than spaces on a game board for the major powers. Each major power attempted to co-opt or conquer these open spots. As a result, Britain and Russia collided over Afghanistan and eventually set the modern borders.
Despite the jockeying for control between the two powers, Britain effectively controlled Afghanistan. However, the empire had to fight three colonial wars within the territory. The first war ended in disaster as Afghan resistance destroyed the British army. This did not dissuade the British. However, following the third war in 1919, Britain was an exhausted imperial force. World War I drained British economic and military reserves. Afghanistan gained its independence.
Afghan independence lasted until the Soviet invasion. In 1979, the Soviet Union decided to help the Afghan government crush a rebellion. The United States decided to aid the Afghan rebels in their struggle against the communist invaders. Estimates place Soviet deaths from 13,000 to 50,000. Additionally, over 400,000 Soviets caught a variety of diseases ranging from typhoid to hepatitis. The cost in money, men, and material provided a mortal blow to the Soviet Union. They left Afghanistan with their tail between their legs.
Unfortunately, a foreign dictatorship gave way to an Islamic dictatorship. The Taliban gained control of the country and terrorized the population and committed crimes against humanity, science, and history. The Taliban provided training bases for El Queda. On September 11, 2001, the Taliban and El Queda struck America. The United States responded with a successful invasion. After the initial victory, the invasion force became bogged down for a variety of reasons. Now, President Obama has to decide whether to abandon Afghanistan or reinforce American troops stationed there.
When looking at the swath of Afghan history, two forces were truly able to gain control of the nation. The first, Islam, provided an ideological and spiritual framework for the people. The second, the Mongols, ruled by fear and terror. Although Islamic, the Taliban took the Mongol lesson to heart. They imposed their twisted version of Islam onto the populace.
When British and Soviet forces invaded, they provided nothing for the people and could only control areas where the military was. This led to protracted conflicts. Britain lasted a century before being chased out. The Soviets and their modern war machine lasted a decade. The United States tried to learn from British and Soviet errors.
When George W. Bush pushed for democracy, and people talked about winning hearts and minds, they were onto something. The U.S. has to provide the Afghan people with something to believe in. America’s only other potential ideological weapon, capitalism, is doomed to fail in an area that does not understand the value of currency. Bush wanted to give the Afghan people a stake in the war. Elections finally came and the Afghan people proudly displayed their stamped fingers. Unfortunately, those gains have been twisted by corrupt politicians running Chicago-style vote scams.
Giving people a stake needs positive reinforcement. What good is Democracy if the Taliban returns and cuts off those stamped fingers? So, an increase of American troop strength could provide the anvil for the Pakistani hammer and trap elements of the Taliban between two forces. At the same time, the extra boots provide the Afghan people with a sense of security and the belief that America will not abandon them. This is assuming the president has not undercut all these potential gains by sitting on General McChrystal’s troop request for months.
Afghanistan's history is long and complicated. It is not as simple as White House officials seem to think. In order to achieve victory there, American planners need to look at British and Soviet mistakes and Islamic successes. That means winning hearts and minds and providing security.
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