Preview of TCU and San Diego State

November 6, 4:43 PMTCU Horned Frogs ExaminerStephen Francis

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QB Ryan Lindley should find some success vs. TCU
(AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

The Horned Frogs travel to San Diego Saturday to take on 4-4 San Diego State University.  The Aztecs have won two in a row and enter the game ranked fifth in the Mountain West Conference at 2-2 in conference play after winning at home vs. New Mexico 23-20 last week.  TCU is ranked sixth in the BCS, sixth in the Associated Press Poll and fourth in the USA Today Coaches Poll and stand tied with the Utah Utes for first place in the Mountain West Conference with a conference record of 4-0.  TCU and San Diego State have played every year since 2005 and the Horned Frogs have won them all by an average score of 40.25 to 15 in the only four games the teams have played against each other all-time.  The Aztecs are 3-1 at home this season while the Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the road for the year, including victories at Clemson and Brigham Young.  This looks on paper like a TCU romp, but factoring in next week’s Utah match-up and taking a closer look at some of the numbers adds up to the makings of a “trap game” for the Horned Frogs. 

The Aztecs have shown this season that they can hang with some decent teams but haven’t quite had enough to close things out.  They stayed within seven for most of their game against BYU and led briefly in the 2^nd quarter, only to fall off late and lose by 10 at home to the Cougars. 

They have some weapons on the offensive side of the ball in quarterback Ryan Lindley, and wide receivers Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson.  Despite a low completion percentage of 55.8, Lindley has 20 touchdown passes compared to the 10 interceptions he’s thrown and a rating of 133.2 for 2,142 yards.  Brown has 45 catches for 778 yards and six touchdown receptions. Sampson complements him well from the other side of the offense with 44 catches for 595 yards and seven touchdown grabs.  When the passing game is operating at it’s best, the Aztecs move the ball very effectively.  On top of that, the offensive line has only allowed 10 sacks this year in their eight games, and has given Lindley plenty of time to get rid of the ball.  They stand a good chance to gain some yardage through the air and put the Frogs’ secondary to the test.

On the ground, junior running back Brandon Sullivan carries most of the load but has just 314 yards on 91 carries and one touchdown.  Freshman running back Walter Kazee may or may not play Saturday but has roughly half the carries Sullivan has (45) and 180 yards with a TD.  With their two main backs averaging around 3.6 yards per carry, the Horned Frog defensive line should have no problems shutting down the SDSU running game but will have their hands full trying to get to Lindley.  The other thing to factor into the Aztec running game is the 12 fumbles they’ve committed thus far, losing six.  The Frogs should be able to exploit that.

Defensively, the Aztecs play the pass well giving up an average of 204.6 yards per game and have intercepted nine of 138 of their opponents’ pass attempts while getting 15 total sacks on the season.  Opposing running games have had a good amount of success gaining 1,162 yards on 330 attempts  (remember, the yardage lost on those fifteen sacks counts in the rushing numbers) for a 3.5 yard per carry clip, which doesn’t sound bad defensively, but their 145.2 yards per game allowed rushing shows a window of opportunity for the TCU ground attack.  However, the Horned Frog receivers may find themselves with their hands full as quarterback Andy Dalton tries to fit the ball into some tight windows. 

Bold Predictions:

After faring “not too shabby-ish” last week, here comes the second installment. 

When TCU has the ball:

Quarterback Andy Dalton will find just enough wiggle room in the Aztec defense to zing a few bullets in there.  He’ll complete 60 percent of his passes for 160 yards and a touchdown pass.  Sophomore wide receiver Antoine Hicks will continue his solid play of late with a few catches for 60 yards and will be the one to catch the lone aerial touchdown.  Junior wide receiver Jimmy Young will bounce back this week with a couple of catches for 40 yards while junior Curtis Clay will contribute a couple of catches for 30 yards. 

On the ground, senior running back Joseph Turner will carry the ball 12 times for 76 yards and a touchdown and freshman Ed Wesley will run 10 times for 87 yards with a touchdown as well.  Freshman Matthew Tucker will get eight carries and reach the end zone too with around 60 yards rushing.  In all, TCU will gain 200+ yards and score three times running the ball.

When San Diego State has the ball:

Ryan Lindley will have some tight windows to throw into, himself and will face more pressure than he’s seen previously this season.  The Horned Frogs will get to him for a sack but he’ll finish by completing 55 percent of his passes with 210 yards passing and two touchdowns.  Receivers Brown and Sampson will each take in a touchdown reception with roughly 80 yards each.

On the ground, the Aztecs will move the ball but it just won’t be effective enough as Sullivan will finish with 25 yards on 10 carries while Kazee will tote the ball 7 times for 30.  The TCU defense will likely force at least two fumbles, recovering one. 

Special teams:

The Aztecs will likely have to settle for a couple of medium-length field goals thanks to the good passing game but the running game bogging down closer to the red zone.  Kicker Lane Yoshida will miss a field goal and convert another one as he’s missed half his field goal attempts he has taken this season. 

The Horned Frogs will benefit on some good kickoff returns from Jeremy Kerley and he has the potential to break one this week against a somewhat porous kickoff coverage team for San Diego State.  Mark him down for his third return touchdown this week as he slips through a gap for one on a kickoff.  Kicker Ross Evans will contribute two field goals to add to a nice point total for the Horned Frogs.

In all, the Aztecs will hang for a while with the Frogs, but TCU will take over in the second half and San Diego State will have a difficult time moving the ball.  TCU will roll to a 34-10 victory.