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Preview of TCU and UNLV
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Sixth-ranked TCU comes back home Saturday following an impressive 38-7 blowout win over then-ranked 16th and conference rival BYU last weekend. The UNLV Rebels come to Fort Worth with a 3-5 record and are 1-3 in Mountain West Conference play. After winning a game like the one against the Cougars the Frogs enter a game where it's imperative they don't let down against an opponent they should see a great amount of success against.
On paper, the Horned Frogs look like a much better team in this game leading the all-time series between the schools with six wins in seven games. In fact, Frogs’ only loss came in 1997, on the road in Las Vegas by the score of 21-19. When looking at common opponents the Horned Frogs are favored as well: TCU defeated BYU soundly (38-7), and BYU trounced UNLV (59-21), which obviously reflects positively for the Frogs.
Working in the Rebels' favor, they have one of the conference’s best passers in quarterback Omar Clayton, who's 1,663 passing yards ranks him fourth in the conference and he owns the fifth-best QB rating in the conference at 128.81. However, Clayton’s nine interceptions compared to his ten touchdown passes shows he is capable of making mistakes and the TCU defense can attack at will and force difficult passes.
When Clayton's likely target and go-to receiver is senior wide-out Ryan Wolfe, who currently ranks third in the nation in receptions with 61. Wolfe received nominations for several pre-season awards and was a favorite on numerous watch lists but shaky offensive production by the team has taken him off most lists. The main obstacle for Wolfe has been reaching the end zone and creating productive catches as only two of those receptions have turned into touchdowns.
The Horned Frogs should have the mismatches they want along the defensive line and watch for the TCU pass rush to force some difficult throws to place Clayton in situations where he will force the ball into coverage. If TCU can make this happen, the only formality in the game’s outcome would be the score, itself.
The Rebels run some, and especially like to go to running backs Channing Trotter and Mike Clausen once they reach the red zone. They’ve combined for 11 of the team’s 34 total touchdowns and provide a significant enough goal-line threat to concern Frogs' defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas.
The UNLV defense has proven to be susceptible to the run after surrendering 559 rushing yards vs. Nevada earlier this season and allowed BYU to run for 291 for an average of 6.8 yards per carry. Add that all up with the 477 passing yards they gave up to Hawaii and the numbers show the Rebel defense allows the opposing offense to set the tone of the game. Good passing teams have passed well against them (Hawaii and BYU) and good running teams have run well on them (Nevada and BYU). This plays to the favor of TCU’s balanced attack and the two total turnovers UNLV has forced make the imbalance even more evident.
Bold predictions:
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton should face a decent pass rush from the Rebels but will still likely find holes in the pass coverage as he approaches 300 yards passing with three touchdowns and no interceptions with most of that work coming in the first half. Jimmy Young will benefit against the UNLV secondary by reaching the end zone once with nearly 100 yards receiving. Antoine Hicks will catch a TD pass while gaining around 60 yards and Curtis Clay will add the other touchdown reception as Dalton has no problem distributing the ball among his many receivers. Running back Joseph Turner will finish with around fifteen carries for 115 yards and reach the end zone once while Ed Wesley will carry the ball an additional ten times for 55 yards and Matthew Tucker will jump in on the action with five carries for 25 yards and a score.
When TCU’s defense takes the field, senior defensive end Jerry Hughes will apply significant pressure with at least a sack and a half as well as two tackles in the backfield against the Rebels. The rest of the TCU defense will reach Clayton three and a half more times and force an interception and a fumble. Clayton will throw for 175 yards with a score while Trotter runs for one TD. Aside from that, UNLV will face tough sledding as the TCU defense holds tight throughout the contest.
Overall, the Rebels will come out strong and force a somewhat close and balanced game throughout the first half. Depth and conditioning will start favoring the Horned Frogs slightly before halftime and the TCU defense will come out strong in the second half. The Frogs will lead 21-10 at halftime and pull away even further late for a 41-17 win.
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