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Preview of TCU and Air Force

 

 

For the branch of the military that specializes in aerial assaults, (and a mascot named after a bird of prey) the Falcons really don’t like to take to the air much on the football field.  Attempting just 52 passes through five games and averaging just over 88.1 yards per game, these aeronauts will not be passing much at all on Saturday night and will likely only throw when they have to.  One thing to consider though:  Air Force has been very efficient when they do pass as sophomores Tim Jefferson and Connor Dietz have combined for a passer rating of 134.95.  Meanwhile, junior Andy Dalton has excelled for TCU thus far passing 62/91 for 814 yards, two interceptions and six touchdown passes. 

 

Advantage: TCU

 

For the Air Force, running the ball is where it’s at and they do it often and effectively with a healthy rotation of backs.  Junior Jared Tew has carried the ball the most with 83 attempts for 291 yards and three touchdowns.  His per carry numbers don’t impress too much, but he is more than capable of grinding the clock down late in the game by carrying the ball often.  Sophomore Asher Clark and junior Savier Stephens have also shared the workload with 49 carries each while gaining 277 and 267 yards, respectively.  The Falcons have four other players with at least 20 carries although two of them line up at the quarterback position.  TCU runs the ball well also and Joseph Turner remains the biggest scoring threat for the Frogs with 51 carries for 299 yards and five touchdowns and is complemented well by Ed Wesley and his 34/187 and Matthew Tucker’s 32/159 rushing.  In a very close match-up, quantity gets the slight edge. 

 

Advantage: Air Force

 

As mentioned in the quarterback match-up, the Falcons don’t pass often and the Frogs take to the air just enough to do some big damage.  For the Air Force, two players stand out:  Sophomore Jonathan Warzeka has caught nine passes for 123 yards but has failed to reach the end zone and junior Kevin Fogler has eight receptions for 185 yards and three touchdowns.  The Falcons are without the services of junior receiver Kyle Halderman due to a broken collarbone, but that won’t impact them much since they don’t pass frequently.  For TCU, junior Bart Johnson has 16 receptions for 163 yards without a touchdown and Jeremy Kerley has the same amount of yardage but on 13 receptions without a receiving touchdown.  Four other Horned Frog receivers have caught at least five passes.

 

Advantage: TCU

 

 

Being a service academy, Air Force definitely has an advantage in the overall shape their offensive linemen are in, but they hold a major disadvantage size-wise.  That hasn’t hampered them though as the Falcons have allowed just two sacks total in the first five games.  The most significant contributing factor in that statistic though is likely the lack of pass attempts the Air Force makes.  The Falcons start five seniors across the offensive line compared to just one senior starting for the Horned Frogs.  Not to be out-done though, especially considering how many more passes they throw, the Frogs have only allowed four sacks in the first four games and boast one of the best all-around offenses in the country, thanks to a very good offensive line.

 

Advantage: TCU

 

 

Air Force brings a solid defensive line into the game with 10.5 total tackles for a loss, seven sacks and 53 total tackles between the three starters.  Senior Myles Morales leads the team in sacks with three and tackles for a loss with five.  Senior Ben Garland has also contributed four tackles for a loss along with two and a half sacks.  For TCU, Jerry Hughes, thought by most to be a first-round draft pick, anchors one of the most impressive defensive lines in college football.  Hughes enters the game with 26 tackles, seven and a half tackles for a loss and six sacks and was announced this past week as one of the finalists for the Lowe’s Senior CLASS Awards for football.  The Frog D-Line has combined for 14.5 tackles for a loss, eight sacks and 59 total tackles in one fewer game.

 

Advantage: TCU

 

 

The linebacking corps for the Falcons has played well thus far and has usually been in the middle of every play to this point.  Junior Ken Lamendola is likely out for the rest of the season, and his five sacks will be missed, but senior John Falgout will fill in nicely as he’s already earned 27 tackles in a non-starting role through five games.  Junior Andre Morris, Jr. has set the bar for the Air Force linebackers with four tackles for a loss, two sacks and 27 tackles.  For the Horned Frogs, senior Daryl Washington has 33 tackles, two and a half tackles for a loss, two sacks and an interception while sophomore Tank Carder has contributed 22 tackles, two tackles for a loss and a sack.  Both teams possess a lot of talent in the middle of the defensive formation but the Lamendola injury does just enough to cause some concern for the Falcons.

 

Advantage: TCU

 

 

The Falcon secondary has picked off eight passes so far this season and have limited opposing offenses to just two passing touchdowns through the first five games.  Sophomore Anthony Wright, Jr. (no relation to former Dallas Cowboy Anthony Wright) leads the team in interceptions with three and has two tackles for a loss.  Junior Reggie Rembert and sophomore Jon Davis have each contributed two interceptions apiece as well. TCU boasts a secondary that gets the job done, but does so without being very flashy.  They have only picked off four passes and have given up six touchdowns through the air, but with a defensive line as solid as theirs, there has been little need for big plays from the defensive backfield.  None-the-less, flashy plays can change the tide in a game quickly and the Falcons get the edge based solely on the fact they will likely get more opportunities.

 

Advantage: Air Force

 

 

Troy Calhoun has started out well during his first two seasons with the Air Force Academy.  He’s had at least eight wins in his first two seasons each year and was 17-9 entering the season after the Falcons had endured three straight losing seasons before his arrival.  On the other side of the field stands Gary Patterson, the veteran TCU coach who has led the Horned Frogs to nearly un-imaginable heights.  At this point in their careers, Patterson wins the match-up hands-down.

 

Advantage: TCU

 

Prediction: This game will likely remain pretty close until the mid-third quarter when the Horned Frogs will start grinding the clock down.  The clock should move pretty quickly due to the success of both running games, but Air Force will find this to be a little bit tougher sledding than they’ve seen in the previous five games.  They’ll have moderate success running in the first half, but fatigue will set in and the Horned Frog defense will step it up to seal the game in the second half.  TCU wins after pulling away late, 42-10.