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Griffin's injury hurts Clippers; does it help Warriors?
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News out of Los Angeles is that Clippers rookie and overall No. 1 draft pick Blake Griffin will miss about six weeks with a stress fracture on his left kneecap. ESPN analyst and one-time Warrior Tim Legler said he had the same injury and a six-week recovery is optimistic, and the Clippers shouldn't expect a major contribution from Griffin until the first of the year or maybe even the All-Star break.
That's certainly bad news for the Clippers, who are hoping to compete for one of the last playoff spots in the Western Conference. Getting the news just hours before opening the season against the Lakers won't help create momentum entering the season.
So with the Clippers dealing with this news and the Rockets facing a season without Yao Ming, the question now is how does the West shape up and where do the Warriors fit in?
The answer to the first question seems pretty obvious. It's the Lakers and Spurs and everyone else. Those two teams seem to be headed for a conference finals showdown -- assuming the Spurs' aging lineup stays healthy and the Kobe Bryant-Ron Artest experiment works in Los Angeles.
The rest of the conference is competitive, yet wide open. Remember, only six games separated second through eighth last year and the ninth-place Suns were just two games out of the playoffs.
Given the news of the day, here's a look at the Western Conference playoff race before the first game of the season even tips off:
BEST OF THE BEST: Lakers and Spurs are two teams you can count on to be there at the end.
NEXT BEST: The Blazers, Nuggets and Mavericks are almost playoff locks -- as long as they avoid major injuries and unforeseen wreckage, they'll be there.
BEST OF THE REST: The Hornets and Jazz are interesting teams. A few years ago, they were both up-and-comers. Chris Paul and the Hornets seemed like they were ready to join the league's elite. Paul still is, but the team hasn't followed his growth chart. They lack depth (as they showed in their preseason finale against the Warriors) and an injury to Paul, David West or Emeka Okafor could easily derail this team. The Jazz, meanwhile, ousted the Warriors after their stunning upset of Dallas in the playoffs in 2007, and looked like a team on the rise with Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer leading the way. Now they're just another solid Jerry Sloan team that you know will play hard but Boozer's contract situation could be a distraction and there's nothing scary about this team -- unless you're a Warrior trying to get a rebound against them. Some experts at ESPN.com have the Jazz as high as fourth in the West, but would it shock anyone to see them finish ninth? Two teams that will probably make the playoffs, but are not sure things.
TAKE YOUR PICK: That leaves one playoff spot open for the team that steps up and distinguishes itself from the group of Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Thunder and Rockets (yes, that means the T'Wolves, Grizzlies and Kings are out of the picture). So lets look at these teams:
Houston: The Rockets are already a team waiting for next year when Yao returns. They have nice complimentary players who can perform well in short stretches without their star big man, but won't likely sustain it over a full season. Consider them out.
Phoenix: Steve Nash is still an outstanding point guard, but at 35 years old no longer a real MVP candidate. Warriors fans really wanted Amare Stoudemire and loved Jason Richardson, but the Suns missed the playoffs with them last year and didn't do much in the offseason other than get a year older. Channing Frye will probably look like an all-star at times against the Warriors (athletic big men tend to do that), but these are not the Suns of five years ago. This is an aging team on the decline.
Oklahoma City: The Thunder have some scary good young players, led by potential NBA scoring champion Kevin Durant. James Harden was a nice draft pick and the folks in Seattle have to be wondering how they can get their team back now that there's so much talent. But young talent usually takes time to mesh (doesn't it, Warriors fans?). Look for the Thunder to learn how to play together this year, come close at the end, then really make noise next year and for years to come.
Los Angeles: Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Clippers' fortunes rest in the health and play of Baron Davis. Davis is coming off a horrible year in which he averaged 14.9 points while shooting just 37.0 percent from the field and 30.2 percent on 3-pointers. Reports are that he's once again in great shape and ready for a comeback season. Now if they also get comeback seasons out of Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman, and young players like Al Thornton and Eric Gordon continue to progress this is potentially a very solid team. Before the Griffin injury, this is the team I thought could finish eighth in the West. Let's see how they respond to the bad news to start the season and how long Griffin is out. The Warriors need to hope the Clippers struggle early, fall way back and lose interest or they could be the ones Davis has believing they can make a playoff run.
Golden State: The Warriors say they have lots of nice pieces. Which they do. But do they have that one player who is going to score clutch baskets in the fourth quarter of tight games? Do they have the ability to make the key stop down the stretch when every possession is crucial? I'm not sure they do. Maybe the end of games will be different this year if Stephen Jackson isn't playing 40 minutes a night and killing himself just to keep the team close through three and a half quarters. Maybe Anthony Morrow is the guy who can hit key shots (he seems to make just about everything). Maybe playing Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf and Anthony Randolph together is the secret to getting late-game stops. There's just so much we don't know about this team. Like the Thunder, they haven't been together long. I don't think this is a playoff team right now. But if they get off to a quick start thanks to that easy nine-game stretch to open the season, get some confidence and find an identity, they could be right there battling for the playoffs in the last month of the season.
My pick for the last spot, however, is the Clippers. I don't like this pick as much as I did yesterday, but I still think they'll be there at the end -- depending, of course, on Baron -- his shape, his play and his attitude. But I still remember when he got the Warriors close, how Baron took over and led them to the playoffs. I can see that happening again.
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