Iran's uranium; not what it seems

February 20, 1:43 PMProgressive Politics ExaminerJay McDonough

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The headlines yesterday were guaranteed to scare the crap out of you.  On Drudge, it was it bright red: "UN: IRAN HAS ENOUGH URANIUM FOR NUKE BOMB..."  Holy crap.  Lord knows there's plenty in the world to worry about.  Now this too? 

The headline is misleading.  And, not to single out Drudge, a good deal of the media coverage (Guardian, Financial Times, CNN) used similar headlines.  If all you read of the articles were the headline and the lead paragraph, you would probably conclude Iran should have their nuclear bomb ready some time next week.  Read a couple more paragraphs, though, and you'd discover Iran has enough low enriched uranium that, if processed to highly enriched uranium, could make a nuclear device.  

From Cernig at Newshoggers:

But they'd have to use this LEU - which is "under containment and surveillance at all times" - in their clandestine facility or wait another 3 or four years to enrich enough uranium from hundreds of tonnes of raw material clandestinely kept separately from the stocks monitored by the IAEA, which they'd have to  clandestinely ship into the country and then clandestinely convert into UF6 gas at yet another secret plant.

And Cheryl Rofer notes:

The concentration of U-235 is 3.49% in the enriched uranium that the Natanz plant is turning out. The IAEA has found no evidence (Download Iran 0902) that any higher enrichment is being produced. 3.49% is not enough to make a bomb. Iran is not in a position to make a bomb, unless there is a bunch of hidden stuff that nobody has found, involving big buildings that can be seen by satellite surveillance.

It would take a reconfiguration of the Natanz facility that the inspectors would notice to produce bomb-grade uranium (concentration of U-235 of 90%). The inspectors also take environmental samples to verify the concentration of U-235. They would have to be kicked out of the facility and their video cameras taken down for Iran to do this.

As Muhammed ElBaradei (Director-General of the IAEA) said, "As long as we are monitoring their facilities, they cannot develop nuclear weapons. And they still do not have the ingredients to make a bomb overnight." That wasn't exciting enough to get into the news.

Oddly enough, the Washington Post is reporting today that Iran has slowed down its nuclear program.  The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported Iran has slowed the expansion of its underground uranium centrifuge capability, perhaps as a concilliatory gesture towards the new Obama Administration. 

I'm no ostrich with my head in the sand.  Iran's intentions aren't known and they should be watched very carefully.  But given the news today that Israeli President Peres has asked Benyamin Netanyahu to become the next Israeli prime minister and given Netanyahu's first public address included some serious saber rattling towards Iran, it seems incredibly reckless for the media to be stoking the fear of an imminent threat from Iran.