The Veepstakes

July 23, 1:22 PMProgressive Politics ExaminerJay McDonough

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It's getting close to convention time.  By the time the two parties nominate their presidential candidates, each will have picked a running mate and speculation of who's in and who's out has been heating up.  Robert Novak had even reported this week that John McCain was considering revealing his choice in a bid to offset media fascination with rival Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East and Europe.

Chris Cilizza at the Washington Post has his latest picks as to the leading contenders:

Republicans

1.  Mitt Romney

2.  Tim Pawlenty

3.  Rob Portman

4.  John Thune

5.  Sarah Palin

Democrats:

1.  Evan Bayh

2.  Tim Kaine

3.  Jack Reed

4.  Joe Biden

5.  Hillary Clinton

Cliizza explains his rationale as follows:

For Obama, that choice is between change and experience. Does Obama opt for a vice president who reinforces his fresh-faced appeal (Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas) or does he go for a more known commodity within the party who has the experience he lacks (Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Jack Reed of Rhode Island)?

McCain's choice is whether to throw a "short pass" or a "Hail Mary."  The short pass candidates are people that McCain is personally close to or would fit an obvious need for him. Choosing a "short pass" candidate would be a signal that McCain believes he can win this race without fundamentally altering its current dynamic. Among the "short pass" names are: Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

The "Hail Mary" option would suggest that McCain believes that he has to shake up the race with an entirely unexpected and unorthodox choice that would carry great reward and great risk. It's the opposite of a safe pick. Among that group: Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska.