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The Fallacy of Iraq
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Declining violence in Iraq's Anbar province has been considered evidence of the success of the U.S. surge of troops last year. Anbar had been horrifically violent preceding the surge and has become one of the more peaceful areas in Iraq following the influx of American troops. Sunni militia leaders decided to, with some financial incentives from the U.S., begin targeting al Qaeda forces rather than American troops. As a result, American casualties dropped off to a very small fraction of previous levels. Unfortunately, things may be changing in Anbar. In the past 30 days, 23% of all Coalition casualties have occurred in Anbar; nine American casualties in the last three and a half weeks compared to 2 U.S. troops killed in the preceding 6 months.
Critics of the war have often expressed concern U.S. efforts would be tantamount to "whack a mole"; focusing on one violent area, reducing the insurgency's effectiveness, and having another area emerge as the new hot spot and the pattern continuing ad infinitum.
By all accounts, most Iraqis want U.S. forces out of their country as much as they want foreign al Qaeda forces out of their country. In addition, surveys have indicated a majority of Iraqis have no problem with American forces being killed by Iraqi insurgents.
At the end of the day, it's the Iraqis that will decide when, or if, their country evolves into stability. Upticks in American deaths, however tragic and unnecessary, will no doubt be inevitable. Those deaths only are a measure of our effectiveness at battling an insurgency but, sadly, no measure of Iraqi progress (or, in this case, lack of progress) towards a civil society.
Topics: Iraq War , Insurgency , Anbar , Casualties
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