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Jay McDonough
Progressive Politics ExaminerJay began writing politically themed commentary and founded his blog, Swimming Freestyle, in October 2007. Here he'll write about politics from a progressive perspective.
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New Zogby National Polling
1 comment
by Jay McDonough, Progressive Politics Examiner
A couple interesting data points are the appearances of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, receiving 4% and 3% respectively.
2008 General Election Match-ups
John McCain 37%
Barack Obama 47%
Ralph Nader 4%
Bob Barr 3%
Not sure/Other 10%
Obama leads in the East, the West, and in the South, while the two are essentially tied in the central part of the country, including the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, the poll shows. He leads among all voters under age 65 – including by huge percentages among those voters under age 30 - but trails McCain among those older voters by a 45% to 34% margin. Interestingly, Obama holds a 13-point edge among those voters age 50 to 64.
The survey hints that Libertarian Bob Barr could do some serious damage to McCain by stealing support among the very conservative and libertarian voters. Barr wins 10% support among those self-described “very conservative” voters, and wins 22% among philosophical (not necessarily “capital L”) libertarians. As McCain continues to angle for moderate support on the campaign trail, Barr could create havoc for him among McCain’s political base.
There is less evidence that Ralph Nader would cause as much trouble for Obama, but he still wins persistent support, including 6% support among mainline liberals and 3% support among progressives. (Link)
To those still thinking Hillary Clinton is in the race:
2008 General Election Match-ups
John McCain 40%
Hillary Clinton 41%
Ralph Nader 4%
Bob Barr 3%
Not sure/Other 12%
Clinton wins less support from her Democratic base than does Obama when paired against McCain – 74% of Democrats said they would vote for her, while 8% would vote for McCain, 4% support Nader, and 13% of Dems were either undecided or favoring someone else.
Clinton leads McCain by a 40% to 33% margin among independents, while Nader wins 7% support and Barr wins 4% among non-aligned voters, and 16% were uncertain about whom to support in the prospective match-up. (Link)
My takeaways:
- Obama is in pretty good shape. He clearly has issues with white voters in Appalachian states and will need to work at attracting those voters. Obama does very well in most areas of the country. Ron Reagan said it best last night on MSNBC, "If Appalachia was a country, Hillary Clinton could be President.”
- John McCain is still unable to raise his polling number above 40-45%. The Senator is the presumptive nominee and gets almost nothing but favored treatment from the mainstream media and still can't rise above the mid forties. This has got to be troublesome for the McCain folks.
- The entry of Libertarian Bob Barr could be a pretty big problem for McCain. It's a surprise to see Barr showing up on a national poll so soon after his announcement to run. If Barr can tap into the Ron Paul constituency (and, more specifically, their money), he will do some real damage to the McCain candidacy.
Topics: General Election , Clinton , Obama , McCain , Zogby
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