Senator John McCain declared on Thursday that most American troops will be home from Iraq by 2013 and that Iraq will be a functioning democracy with only “spasmodic’’ episodes of violence, a striking departure from his refusal so far to set a date for U.S. withdrawal.

“By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom,’’ Mr. McCain said at the Columbus Convention Center. “The Iraq War has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced.’’

Senator McCain, on numerous occasions during the primary season, ripped into challenger Mitt Romney for setting a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.  When challenged after his speech, McCain attempted to make a distinction between a date for withdrawal and a date for withdrawal after "victory". 

I would feel a lot better about Senator McCain's forecast if he had a reasonable record of being correct in his predictions.  Here's a sampling of the Senator's previous forecasts on Iraq:

“And I believe that the success will be fairly easy” and “There's no doubt in my mind that... we will be welcomed as liberators.”  [CNN, Larry King Live, 9/24/02. MSNBC, Hardball, 3/24/03]

“I think we could go in with much smaller numbers than we had to do in the past... I don't believe it's going to be nearly the size and scope that it was in 1991.”  [Face the Nation, 9/15/02]

“There's not a history of clashes that are violent between Sunnis and Shias. So I think they can probably get along.” [MSNBC Hardball, 4/23/03]

McCain was asked, “at what point will America be able to say the war was won?” He responded, “...it’s clear that the end is, is, is very much in sight.” [ABC, “Good Morning America,” 4/9/03]

Exactly one year before violence in Iraq peaked:  “Overall, I think a year from now, we will have made a fair amount of progress if we stay the course.”  [The Hill, 12/8/05]

Look, I'm all for hope.  I'm a big fan of hope.  But developing foreign policy, particularly when lives are at stake, based on a "if I just wish hard enough, it will happen" strategy is just more of what the Bush Administration has offered. 

BUT WHAT'S THE PLAN? 

How about this: you define specific and objective metrics (e.g., number of hours of electricity per day, reduced insurgent attacks, infrastructure development, legislative accomplishments, etc.), install folks who buy into the objectives and are replaced if they can't get it done, and withdraw troops based on hitting the metrics? 

That seems to me a reasonable Republican plan.  And one Republicans and Democrats can debate intelligently.  But Senator McCain's complete lack of specifics does nothing to further the debate and, like his equally vague economic policy, just makes voters doubt there's any real substance behind his positions.