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“Not in our wildest dreams could we have imagined this,” said Mowaffak al-Rubaie, the national security adviser. “Two or three years ago, had we suggested that the Iraqis could take responsibility, we would have been ridiculed, we would have been laughed at. This was the cradle of the Sunni insurgency.” (Link)
The current peace is tenuous, however.
I wrote a few weeks back about the American program that paid a $300/month stipend to ex Sunni militia members who have aligned themselves against al Qaeda. (NOTE: the U.S. has had over 100,000 militia members on the payroll and has spent $303M on salaries this year). As the U.S. transitions out of Anbar, the Maliki government was to absorb these Sunni Awakening troops into the Iraqi military.
The Maliki government, however, has been sending signals that incorporating the ex Sunni militia members into the Iraqi army may not occur as planned.
...the Iraqi government, which is led by Shiite Muslims, has brought only a relative handful of the more than 100,000 militia members into the security forces. Now officials are making it clear that they don't intend to include most of the rest.
Some militia members say that such a move would force them into open warfare with the government again.
The Maliki government is setting a November 1st deadline for Sunni Awakening militia members who haven't been incorporated into the national security forces or given civilian jobs to lay down their weapons.
Many experts are concerned Prime Minister Maliki is now brimming with undue confidence, ignoring warning signs, and on a path towards renewed intrasect violence in Iraq. Recent Iraqi army successes in Southern Iraq have boosted Maliki's popularity and the waning influence of Moqtada al-Sadr has made Maliki's hold on power all the more secure.
The U.S. handoff of Anbar to Iraqi forces is terrific news and a major benchmark in the progress towards U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. How Prime Minister Maliki handles the increasingly frustrated Sunni population in western Iraq will determine whether our withdrawal from Anbar is temporary or permanent.


