Housing prices case study: Minneapolis
POSTED May 8, 10:54 AM







I did a radio interview this morning on Minneapolis home prices on WCCO-AM radio. Here are the highlights:
  • home prices in the Minneapolis MN area were down 5% from a year ago
  • Condos are faring worse than houses, especially smaller condos
    • condos worth less than $179,000 were down 12%
  • In terms of specific parts of Minneapolis
  • The further you are from the city center of Minneapolis, the worse off you are: areas east of Woodbury and west of Plymouth and Minnetonka were down 12% or more
  • Looking for a silver lining? Over the last 10 years, home prices overall in Minneapolis were up 6.3% per year on average. Not bad, when you take a step back and look at things from a high level.
If you want the gory detail on Minneapolis house values, check out our excel reports.








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Media whirlwind
POSTED May 8, 9:58 AM
I spent most of the week discussing home prices on TV and radio -- over 20 million listeners and viewers heard Zillow's take on housing prices in the last few days.

I shared some of my observations about these interviews over on my Active Rain blog -- here's the post about housing prices.
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Home prices fall even more quickly in Q1
POSTED May 6, 12:08 PM


Zillow (my company) has just released their 1st Quarter Home Value Report which paints a grim picture of housing trends nationwide. A few of the highlights (or lowlights): 

As a reminder, Zillow looks at all house values nationwide, not just those homes that sell in the period. So it’s a more holistic view of what’s happening to housing trends than other measures. Here is more information on why Zillow’s methodology is superior to Case-Schiller and OFHEO, and why it is superior to NAR home price data.

Here are some incredible images of US home prices, and here is more data than you can shake a for sale sign at:


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Conference Call on Housing Prices
POSTED May 5, 10:19 PM
Zillow released our Q1 Home Value report tonight. I'll blog about the findings tomorrow when I have time, but I wanted to give you a heads-up that our head of analytics (Dr. Stan Humphries) is hosting a conference call on May 6 @ 11am PDT to discuss home values. If you're a housing data junkie, you should tune in:

Dr. Stan Humphries of Zillow will host a conference call this Tuesday, May 6 at 11 a.m. PDT/2 p.m. EDT.  To participate, dial 800-218-0713. To download call-related slides, visit the Zillow Press Room at http://zillow.mediaroom.com

 

Note: This call is mostly for media. There will be another call in a few weeks geared more towards real estate professionals. But feel free to join tomorrow's call if you'd like.

Categories: house prices
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ARM resetting? It might not be as bad as you think
POSTED May 5, 1:35 PM
There has been a lot of ink spilled and keystrokes typed about the wave of adjustable rate mortgages ("ARMs") which are resetting in 2008 and 2009. The concern has been that as these ARMs reset, homeowner's mortgage rates will go up, thus worsening the credit crunch. I started warning about the problem of ARM resets as far back as March 2006.

So what has happened? Well, the results haven't been as bad as expected - yet. This San Francisco Chronicle article does a good job of explaining the issue.

Look at my own mortgage as a valid case study though.

I had a 3/1 ARM which just passed three years last month, so it was time for the reset. The terms of my loan called for a 2.75% margin on top of "LIBOR" (which is closely related to the "Federal Funds Rate" which is what the Federal Reserve Board controls.) I started paying attention to the issue over a year ago, and kept my eye on LIBOR, wondering how much my 5% interest rate might change upon reset. Last month when the day of reckoning came, interest rates were so low that my interest rate actually dropped when the ARM reset -- 2.75% margin on top of a 2% LIBOR => 4.75% interest rate.

Crisis averted, right? Wrong. Crisis postponed.

The problem is that this new rate is only good for another year, at which time interest rates might be a lot higher and the new reset might drive my rates way up. So the prudent thing to do would be to refi now and lock in a low rate for a longer period of time.

Still, I'm grateful that my interest rates didn't go up (at least not this year) despite my ARM reset.
Categories: mortgages
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Spencer Rascoff
Spencer Rascoff is CFO and Vice President of Marketing at Zillow.com. Prior to joining Zillow.com, Spencer was Vice President of Lodging for Expedia. In 1999, Spencer co-founded Hotwire.com, a leading Internet travel company, and ran several product lines there. Hotwire was sold to InterActiveCorp in 2003. Before his career at Hotwire, Spencer served as an investment professional at the Texas Pacific Group, a leading private equity firm. Spencer graduated cum laude from Harvard University.

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