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Damage control at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?
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New Jersey governor-elect Chris Christie
On the morning following the defeat of a pair of Democrat gubernatorial candidates, incumbent John Corzine of New Jersey and R. Creigh Deeds of Virginia, by Republican candidates U.S. Attorney Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs suggested to reporters that President Barack Obama did not believe these election results were related to public opinion of President Obama or his accomplishments during his first nine months in office.
Press Secretary Gibbs said that voters cast their ballots based on "very local issues that didn't involve the president," particularly the fleeting economy. He added, “I don't think the president needed an election or an exit poll to come to that conclusion."
Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele was encouraged by the developments, particularly the 48.9-44.5% victory by Christie which surprised most pundits, and believed the results will reverberate in the nation’s capitol.
''It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president's liberal agenda,'' Chairman Steele said.
President Obama visited New Jersey three times in support of Governor Corzine; Vice President Joe Biden and President Bill Clinton also campaigned in New Jersey on behalf of Corzine and appeared with the Governor at several functions.
"He's one of the best partners I have in the White House. We work together," President Obama said of Governor Corzine on November 1, 2009. "We know our work is far from over."
Vice President Biden said, "it’s critically important [Governor Corzine] be re-elected."
Despite visits from several of the highest-profile Democratic politicians and the presence of a third-party conservative candidate, Chris Daggett, who was expected to receive support from voters who would otherwise have supported Christie, Governor Corzine was dealt a 106,000 vote defeat by the former prosecutor, as Christie became the first Republican to win the traditionally Democratic state since 1997. President Obama overwhelmingly defeated Republican Senator John McCain in the Garden State in the 2008 presidential election.
Deeds did not receive the same support from the Democratic Party and, although Virginia’s most recent two governors – Tim Kaine and Mark Warner - were Democrats, five of the past nine governors, excluding McDonnell, were Republicans. President Obama carried Virginia in the 2008 election by a 52-46% margin, though President George W. Bush won the state’s electoral votes in 2004 and 2000.
The most troubling indicator for President Obama and Democratic candidates may be the voting pattern of registered independents during the 2009 gubernatorial elections as compared to their preferences in the 2008 presidential and Congressional elections. Independents supported the Democratic Party in 2008, likely due to disenchantment with the Republican Party and the leadership of President Bush; their preference carried the Democratic Party to an emphatic victory, which President Obama has commonly alluded to when attempting to promote his agenda. In the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, independents shifted support to Republican candidates, including by a 62-37% margin in The Old Dominion state.
Although the shift in power within the state governments in New Jersey and Virginia does not bode favorably for the Democratic candidates facing re-election in 2010, it is unclear whether the success of a pair of Republican candidates is an indicator of a trend. New Jersey voters disapproved of Governor Corzine before President Obama showed his support for the embattled former Goldman Sachs chairman, and state property taxes, the highest in the United States, were a crucial issue at most tangentially related to President Obama’s political agenda. Despite Governor Corzine’s economic background, the state failed to recover from the recession while taxes increased.
"The governor promised four years ago there would be a reduction in property taxes. Clearly that hasn’t happened," said New Jersey Representative Leonard Lance, a former state senator who has a strong relationship with Governor Corzine. "The income tax has been raised. The sales tax has been raised. We have systemic budgetary problems in New Jersey, and while some headway has been made, a great deal more needs to be done."
Press Secretary Gibbs said the White House and the Democratic Party were encouraged by results in special elections for congressional seats in California, where John Garamendi defeated Republican David Harmer, and New York, where Bill Owens outlasted Conservative Doug Hoffman. The New York election was particularly significant because the Democrats had not held the seat representing the 23rd Congressional District in over 100 years; Democrats controlled California’s 10th Congressional District in recent years. The victory in New York gave the Democrats another seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
President Obama and the Democratic Party had vested interests in Democrats retaining control in the states, as evidenced particularly by efforts to influence the New Jersey race. Some political analysts labeled the events of November 3, 2009 a referendum on President Obama and the United States Congress, but exit polls do not clearly indicate that President Obama’s plummeting national approval significantly factored in the decision-making of voters in New Jersey or Virginia. Approximately 20% of those questioned said a positive opinion of President Obama factored into their decision in the voting booth, while 20% said a negative opinion of the President influenced their decision and 60% said his performance played little or no role. However, frustration with the stagnant economy and struggles of voters with high taxes were reflected in local and state elections and, unless the Democratic-controlled executive and legislative branches of the federal government are able to lead an economic recovery within the next year, the results of the 2009 elections will likely serve as a portent for the crucial Congressional races in 2010.
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