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Political polls raise red flags for Ohio Democrats Strickland, Kilroy, Driehaus, Space, Boccieri
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Columbus Congresswowman Mary Jo Kilroy
and President Barack Obama (Photo/AP)
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- If the results of two new polls on Ohio voter sentiments for candidates and issues are even moderately relevant to next year's elections, incumbent Democrats like Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and members of Congress like Mary Jo Kilroy, Steve Driehaus, Zack Space and John Boccieri should be wary of whether the crucible that awaits them in 2010 could burn up their chances for another term in office.
While polls like the ones released this week by Quinnipiac University and The Pew Research Center can be marginalized because the 2010 general elections are still about a year way, incumbent office holders, especially Democrats, should heed the tea leaves of anti-incumbent sentiment these polls raise with the policies of President Barack Obama and those who support them.
For Ohio, a coveted battleground state that can make the White House a presidential candidate's next home, it will again be in the cross-hairs of political pundits as a key swing state, that could confirm the rising enthusiasm by Republicans that they will recoup seats in Washington and offices in Ohio lost in the drubbing they took in the past two election cycles. Yet while the news in these polls give Republicans something to cheer about, the fact that only about 17 percent of American voters identify themselves as Republicans could also pop their balloon, showing it was propelled by hot air instead of a reveed up engine. The challenge for Democrats is to light a fire under young and independent voters and turn them out as if Obama was on the ballot.
Quinnipiac Ohio Poll cause for concern
The bigget race next year in Ohio will be for governor. After three years in office and with another one to go, the bad news for Gov. Ted Strickland is that he is in a 40-40 percent dead heat with GOP challenger John Kasich, who while a star among Republicans is still a distant light to most Ohio voters. Strickland will have to defend his economic and job-creating record while Kasich only needs to make reasonable promises that Ohio voters -- who have given control of Ohio offices and the legislature to Republicans since the early 90s until 2006 when the spell was broken -- can base their vote on.
Republican US Senate candidate Rob Portman, for the first time, has pulled ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race, the Quinnipiac Ohio Poll (QOP) revealed. It showed that Ohio voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from his 53 - 42 percent approval September 16 and 49 - 44 percent approval July 7.
In still another first, Ohio voters are split 40 - 40 percent on who is doing a better job handling health care, Obama or Congressional Republicans, who in the House are lead by Minority Leader John Boehner of southwest Ohio. In a September 16 survey on the same question, Obama was on top 49 - 28 percent.
Ohio voters also disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the way the President is handling the economy and disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the way he is handling health care. In September, they approved of his handling of the economy 48 - 46 percent and split on his handling of health care 44 - 45 percent.
"The Democratic wave that swept through Ohio in 2006 and 2008 may be cresting," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He said the Democratic lead in the Governor's and Senate races "has evaporated and for the first time President Barack Obama is under water in the most important swing state in the country."
Brown reported that Ohio voters are not happy with the President's handling of health care and the economy. The fact that they now are split over whether he or the Republicans in Congress are better able to handle health care, Brown said, "should be a very worrisome number at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave...since the GOP is still pretty much a four-letter word in most of America."
Independent voters, often the group that decides Ohio elections, disapprove 49 - 45 percent of the overall job Obama is doing and disapprove 54 - 39 percent of his handling of the economy. They disapprove 62 - 34 percent, almost 2-1, of his handling of health care.
Pew Poll shows American mood glum
On the topic of anti-incumbent sentiment, the Pew Research Center said the "mood of America is glum" and noted that two-thirds of the public is dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.
Fully nine-in-ten of those contacted by Pew said that national economic conditions are only fair or poor, and nearly two-thirds describe their own finances that way -- the most since the summer of 1992. An increasing proportion of Americans said that the war in Afghanistan is not going well, and a plurality continues to oppose the health care reform proposals in Congress.
Pew reported that about half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year, while 34 percent say that most members of Congress should be re-elected. It noted that both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.
Support for congressional incumbents is particularly low among political independents. Only 42 percent of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25 percent would like to see most members of Congress re-elected. Both measures are near all-time lows in Pew Research surveys.
Ohio Democrats gear up for 2010 knockout punch
But for first-term Ohio Congressmen like Mary Jo Kilroy of Columbus, Steve Driehaus of Cincinnati and John Boccieri of northeast Ohio, the message of these two polls should cause them to gird for a blistering run for a second term. For Zack Space, who has two terms under his belt and a sizable campaign coffer, he may be able to return again despite the rural, fiscal and social conservatism of his east-central Ohio district.
Some factors that could make them vulnerable to defeat next year include whether they voted “yes” on the so-called cap-and-trade bill, the partisan voting index of their district, whether their 2008 popular vote 55 percent or less and does their opponent have at least $100,000 cash on hand as of 9/30/09?
Based on these and other criteria, there are 28 Democrats who are on the vulnerability list posted at the election Web site FiveThirtyEight.com and four of them are in Ohio.
Meanwhile, The Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) is hoping to land another knockout punch to Republicans next year. In a Friday email, the ODP said the 2010 Elections in Ohio represented both a chance to lock-in partisan gains for the next 10 years, but also to ensure that Ohio remains a firewall of support for President Obama's re-election in 2012.
Asking for help to make history again next year, the ODP said it wants to start that effort by giving a "special, in-depth briefing on what the Ohio Democratic Party is planning and doing right now to win in 2010." The briefing, free of charge and called The Knockout: ODP's Strategic Blueprint for Victory in 2010, is scheduled for next Monday.
Follow me on Twitter @ohionewsbureau. Read more stories on people, politics and government in Ohio here.
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