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Report: Swine flu cases may be overestimated
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According to an exclusive report by CBS News Investigates, "if you've been diagnosed 'probable' or 'presumed' 2009 H1N1 or 'swine flu' in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu."
Based on state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long investigation, CBS news reported that cases of "swine flu" are not nearly as prevalent as feared. While this is good news in some respects, it also has some negative ramifications.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), those who have had the H1N1 flu are immune from future outbreaks of the same virus, so those that think they have had H1N1 flu, but have not, might mistakenly presume they're immune. "As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the mistaken belief they won't catch it. Parents might not keep sick children home from school, mistakenly believing they've already had H1N1 flu."
The CDC advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu in late July and stopped counting individual cases. According to CBS, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) issued a notice on July 24 to state public health officials on behalf of the CDC stating that the CDC would post more information on its web site as to why the decision was made to no longer report case counts of H1N1. When that information was not released, CBS filed a Freedom of Information request with the Department of Health and Human Services for that information, as well as state-by-state test results on lab-confirmed H1N1 prior to the halting of testing and tracking in July.
Meanwhile, CBS asked all 50 states for their statistics and "the results reveal a pattern that surprised a number of health care professionals [CBS] consulted. The vast majority of cases were negative for H1N1 as well as seasonal flu, despite the fact that many states were specifically testing patients deemed to be most likely to have H1N1 flu, based on symptoms and risk factors, such as travel to Mexico."
According to CBS, "with most cases [now] diagnosed solely on symptoms and risk factors, the H1N1 flu epidemic may seem worse than it is." That does not mean it is prudent to pass on a vaccination if it is available. The CDC recommends that everyone should get the vaccination for H1N1. Without lab testing, however, it is impossible to determine the actual amount of H1N1 cases in the U.S. What little data is available, however, suggests the actual number may be far less than feared.
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