2010 looks bleak for Senate Democrats

November 8, 6:43 PMDC Republican ExaminerBill Dupray

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NPR is wringing its hands . . . with good reason. Let's look at their list of Senate races and see how much good news is there for the Dems.

Democratic leader Harry Reid is woefully unpopular in Nevada. Six Republicans are competing for the chance to topple him the way GOP Sen. John Thune of South Dakota did to then-Democratic leader Tom Daschle in 2004.

RCP has both Republicans Lowden and Tarkanian beating Reid.

Let's keep track. So far we are R-1, D-0.

There are three open seats vacated by Democrats.

The GOP is going after three Democratic-held seats filled with appointees after Obama chose sitting senators for his administration. Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado [Republican Norton leads by double-digits] is seeking his first full term; Sens. Ted Kaufman of Delaware, who has Vice President Joe Biden's old seat [Republican Mike Castle leads Beau Biden by 5, if the latter even runs - if not it's Castle's in a walk], and Roland Burris of Illinois, who has Obama's old seat [Republican Kirk lead Giannoulias by 7], aren't running.

That makes a total of R-4, D-0.

As for incumbent Democrats, the numbers are also pretty bleak.

Republicans also have in their sights Democratic Sens. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas [she trails all 4 Republican challengers], a state John McCain won last fall; Chris Dodd in Connecticut, hampered by a mortgage controversy [Simmons leads Dodd by 6]; Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, the party-switching former Republican [Toomey leads Specter by 2]; and Barbara Boxer in California, a frequent GOP target [Boxer is probably safe, leading Fiorina by 10].

So that makes R-7, D-1 in flipping Democrat-held seats.

But NPR bravely says that the Dems have their own targets. Let's see how vulnerable these GOP seats might be.

Democrats want to pick up seats left open by retiring GOP senators in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio. They also are seeking to overtake scandal-scarred Republican Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana and are eyeing GOP Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina, where Obama won last fall.

In Florida, both Republicans Crist and Rubio lead the Democrat Meek by double-digits in the Florida Senate race.

R-8, D-1.

In Kentucky, the Republican, Trey Grayson, runs ahead of or even with the two Democrat challengers.

Call that a toss-up. R-8, D-1, Toss-up-1

Missouri is a dead heat between Blunt (R) and Carnahan (D).

R-8, D-1, Toss-up-2

New Hampshire shows Republican Ayotte with a 7 point lead.

R-9, D-1, Toss-up-2

In Ohio, the polls show a toss-up.

R-9, D-1, Toss-up-3

Republican David Vitter lead Melancon by 11 in Louisiana, and Burr leads Marshall by double-digits in North Carolina.

R-11, D-1, Toss-up-3

The Senate has 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus most of the time with the Dems.

If the Dems lose the seven seats and the GOP holds all of theirs, the Senate will be 51 Dems, 47 Republicans, and the 2 independents. That will not only make it extremely difficult for Obama to ram through any earth-shattering legislation as he will be nowhere near filibuster-proof, he may have difficulty even getting a bare majority to pass anything.

Charlie Cook says that if you think 2010 looks bleak for the Democrats, wait until you see 2012 and 2014.

With Democrats having just short of twice the number of exposed seats as Republicans up in 2012 and 2014 -- 43 vs. 22 -- it is important for Democrats to hold the line and, if possible, expand on their majority in 2010. When their big classes elected in 2006 and 2008 come around in the next two elections, they might be hanging on for dear life. Conversely for Republicans, if they chip away a few seats this time, it increases their odds of retaking their majority.

Looks like Tuesday's election may have been the start of a new era of Hope and Change, Republican-style.