Seeing the future – anticipating drivers’ decisions

June 16, 6:19 PMDC Motorcycle Travel ExaminerMark Poesch

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Seeing the future is about seeing the road from drivers’ perspectives, and anticipating their decisions.

Often there is insufficient time to fully assess drivers’ attitudes.  Cars approaching from the opposite direction are often only visible for a few seconds.  Drivers immediately behind are nearly invisible to most of us – although properly adjusted mirrors and use of lane position can help – if you can’t assess the driver behind you, your “situational awareness” should be on alert – if they seem to be following too close, you should be on high alert and already compensating.

In the absence of a full assessment of drivers’ attitudes – something that is rarely possible – it’s the combination of situational awareness and seeing the road from drivers’ perspectives that is most essential to seeing the future.

Summary of Findings Motorcycle Accident Causes Factors – The Hurt Report:

“6. In the multiple vehicle accidents, the driver of the other vehicle violated the motorcycle right-of-way and caused the accident in two-thirds of those accidents.”

“10. Intersections are the most likely place for the motorcycle accident, with the other vehicle violating the motorcycle right-of-way, and often violating traffic controls.”

Riders who see the road from drivers’ perspectives will be more aware of the choices the driver sees, and more aware of the risks those choices pose.  From here, it is essential that the motorcyclist make no assumptions, but instead, consider all options open to the driver.  If you must assume, anticipate that they will choose poorly.

Motorcyclists are frustrated and angry about motorists who violate their right-of-way at intersections by turning in front of them.  And often, rightfully so.  But, is this anger and frustration making us any safer?  If we’re going to improve our odds, we need to recognize that drivers are unlikely to change their behavior – so we must change ours.  Situational awareness and anticipation the driver’s choices should leave you poised to react at every intersection.  And, not only while moving.

In the July 2009 issue of American Motorcyclist Magazine, a column titled “A New Low In Distracted Driving” relates the tragic news of a motorcyclist hit and killed by a driver who was distracted because she was… painting her fingernails.  The driver was “charged with failure to reduce speed to avoid an accident, and may face more severe charges later.”

Often, when I stop at a red light, I'll shift into neutral – most of the time, after checking that the car behind me is stopping as well.  But, the MSF recommends staying in 1st gear at traffic lights.  This incident makes it clear why the MSF recommendation makes sense – maintaining options to maneuver is essential at all times, even when stopped.  And, as this tragic case makes clear – especially when stopped – it’s essential for motorcyclists to be even more vigilant, even more aware, and even more ready to react.

Another strategy when stopping is to shift far left or right – effectively, lane splitting – so that if the driver behind does fail to stop, they have a path by you, and you don’t become “meat in a bumper sandwich.”

If one or more, or all of the drivers around you choose the dumbest, most dangerous options available to them, you should not be surprised.  Instead, you should be prepared, and already be executing your plan to avoid their stupidity.

Too many cars, too much crazy driving to keep track of it all?  Consider a different route.  If you ever feel like you can’t predict what’s going to happen around you, you either need to 1) adjust your riding so that you can predict what will happen, 2) adjust your route, or 3) stop riding.

Either that, or acknowledge that with every intersection and every mile, you’re rolling the dice with your life.  It’s a dangerous game if you can’t predict the future.  Are you sure you want to play?

Next up: Seeing the future – literally.

For more information:
- To survive, you must see the future!
- Seeing the future – situational awareness
- Seeing the future – anticipating drivers’ attitudes
- Seeing the future – anticipating drivers’ decisions
- Seeing the future – literally
- Seeing the future – lessons learned