To survive, you must see the future!

June 15, 7:32 AMDC Motorcycle Travel ExaminerMark Poesch

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“Live or die – it’s your choice,” I wrote in Being seen is a rider’s responsibility.  But in fact, it really isn't a choice, it’s a skill.  Simply and elegantly stated: “Good decisions come from experience.  Experience comes from bad decisions.”  Very true, but not all experience must come directly.  So, through this article series, I hope to share my experience with bad decisions to enable you to make more good decisions.

Of course, everyone can see into the future – you do it all the time; whether it’s picking what clothes to wear, walking down the hall, choosing where to have dinner, driving to work, or navigating through heavy traffic on your bike.  Most of the time, we take the ability to project choices into the future for granted.  Generally, it comes so naturally that we do it intuitively with little or no attention.

But, when riding, attention is the first priority.  And, awareness and attention to the prediction and evaluation process will enable you to refine your skills, and enable you to see into the future far more effectively.  The challenge and the need for experience comes from the fact that not only are you projecting your choices into the future  – you must also predict and project the choices of all the drivers around you.

Have you ever been surprised by a driver’s maneuver?  After the fact, did you consider whether there were any cues in advance of their maneuver that might have helped you be prepared?  In hindsight, could you have predicted their move?  With experience, you should find that when the answer to the first question is “yes” that the answer to the other two questions is also, increasingly, “yes.”

As part of the Basic RiderCourse, the Motorcycle Safety Foundation teaches SEE: “Search, Evaluate, Execute.”  This somewhat rambling monologue gives a real-world perspective on SEE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek4TAydyIWQ (NOTE: Lane splitting, as demonstrated in the video, is only legal in California.)

"Seeing the future" is about taking the SEE process to the next level.  It’s about situational awareness.  It’s about taking cues from drivers’ behavior, and anticipating their attitudes.  And, it’s about seeing the road from their perspective, and anticipating their decisions.

Over nearly 30 years of driving, I’ve seen an exponential decline in my accident rate.  I had two accidents in my first year on the road – the first was my fault; following to close, caught off guard, I couldn’t stop in time – the second wasn’t my fault: a collision in an intersection with a driver running a red light.  Although I say the second accident “wasn’t my fault,” I would also say that a more experienced driver could have avoided the collision.  Why?  What’s the difference?  And could that difference account for the exponential decline in my accident rate?

Assumption is the first novice mistake.  Just prior to the second accident, I assumed that after the light turned green for me that the intersection would remain clear as I approached.  An assumption that was immediately proven wrong by a driver crossing my path through the intersection, running the red light.  But, at this point, I was still far enough from the intersection that I had time to react.  Especially, since that driver was immediately followed by a second car running the red light!  A red flag to any experienced driver.

But, watching the second car in amazement, I (again) assumed that no one on earth could be dumb enough to run the red light now!  (The light had been red for crossing traffic long enough not only for my light to turn green, but then for two cars to completely clear the intersection.)

My assumption was in error.  In a rush to scramble through the light, a third car blasted into the intersection, and seeing me too late, hit his brakes at exactly the right time to bring our cars, perpendicular to each other, nose to nose.  In fact, if the other driver had accelerated rather than braking, he might have cleared the intersection just as I arrived.  In this case, we were both lucky.  Him, because I had nearly skidded to a halt, and impacted his front left fender at only five MPH.  Me, because a driver in the right lane beside me came back to the scene of the accident to testify to the police that our light had been green for some time before I slid into the intersection.  To my chagrin, the driver who ran the red line and caused the collision was only charged with “failure to yield right-of-way.”

In hindsight, I can see at least three errors: 1) My attention was on the second car running the red light, not on the partially hidden road where the cars had come from.  2) I assumed that there couldn’t possibly be a third car.  3) Rather than maintaining my speed or braking, once the second car cleared the intersection, I accelerated (briefly) until I saw the third car.

Since that accident, I’ve seen variations of the same scenario several times – both while driving and while riding.  But, because of that early experience, I’ve been prepared and haven’t let the other drivers make me make the same mistake.

Sooner or later, another driver will cut you off.  The only question is: will you be surprised when it happens?  Or, will you be prepared?

Continued with Seeing the future – situational awareness.

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