Global warming effects could be double previous forecasts

May 20, 1:33 PMDenver Weather ExaminerTony Hake

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To illustrate the findings of their model, MIT researchers created
a pair of 'roulette wheels.' The wheel on the right depicts their
estimate of the range of probability of potential global
temperature change over the next 100 years if no policy change
is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The wheel on
the left assumes that aggresive policy is enacted.
Image courtesy / MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy
of Global Change

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) announced today that without immediate and substantial action, global warming will be twice as severe as estimated. 

Just six years ago the researchers projected a median temperature increase of 4.3 degrees F (2.4 degrees C).  Under the new models, they now say temperatures could increase rise 9.3 degrees F (5.2 degrees C) by 2100.

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Using a computer simulation that takes into account economic activity and climate processes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model has been in use since the early 1990s and is continually being refined.  The researchers say the unique aspect of their model is its ability to take into account human activities like economic growth and its associated energy use. 

Several updated factors account for the dire prediction in the latest study.  Improved economic modeling indicate that there will be less of a chance of lowering emissions.  Further, the models were modified to take into account global warming that may have been ‘masked’ by 20th century volcanic eruptions such as Mount Pinatubo.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-direcor of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science said in a statement, "unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction.  Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming."

There is significantly more risk than we previously estimated.  This increases the urgency for significant policy action.
~ Ronald Prinn, Director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science

Prinn and the co-authors warn that it is possible the modeling is understating the global warming problem and its effect on climate change.  They point to the idea that if temperatures increase it would cause significant melting of permafrost in arctic regions which in turn would release greater amounts of methane gas.  Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2). 

In highlighting the problem, the study says that “rapid and massive action” is required.  Prinn said, "The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies."