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Zduriencik to face his toughest decisions
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When Jack Zduriencik took over as the Mariners general manager late last year, we all knew this was not going to be a quick turnaround. It was at least a three-year plan. Much like Obama, he had walked into a mess that suddenly it became his mess.
For the most part, I like what he has done. He didn't have many valuable trade pieces to work with so he was forced to deal his strength, closer J.J. Putz, and brought in some helpful parts, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Franklin Gutierrez and some minor leaguers. I particularly like the potential of 1B Mike Carp, who is hitting .326 with 6 HR and 16 RBI for Tacoma. He's got some pop and will likely be the team's first baseman next season. Also, another acquisition, OF Ezequiel Carrera, is hitting .357 for Double-A West Tenn.
He used RHP Aaron Heilman, picked up in a trade, as a tool to acquire a couple more regulars, INF Ronny Cedeno and just called up LHP Garrett Olson. He also picked up RHP David Aardsma, now the team's temporary closer, for essentially nothing.
At least he's getting a return on his trades, unlike his predecessor Bill Bavasi, a master of the one-sided deal. Zduriencik also signed three key guys who have reformed the clubhouse, 1B/DH Mike Sweeney, 1B Russell Branyan and DH/OF Ken Griffey, Jr.
One problem had developed in his long-term plan to return the Mariners to prominence - they're in first place! This can't continue, can't it? Should it? The longer into the season that the Mariners remain at or near the top of the AL West, the more difficulty Zduriencik faces.
This sudden success, although welcomed, was not supposed to happen. The working game plan this season was to be competitive but not so much so. It was expected that the club would be perhaps 10, 12 games out of first place by the July 31 trading deadline. And that still may happen but if it doesn't then the club can be forced to gamble on guys who would otherwise be moved.
Third baseman Adrian Beltre, not off to a blazing start, is in the final year of his contract. He would be a valuable piece for some contender who recognize his glove skills and power potential. But if the Mariners are leading or close as August approaches, they can't afford to trade him. It would be a PR nightmare. They might be forced to keep him, lose him to free agency and get essentially nothing for him.
The same is true for LHP Jarrod Washburn. How do you trade a starter to a contender, especially if Washburn continues to throw well, when you yourself are a contender? Quite a dilemma for Zduriencik, whose main ambition is to replenish the system with quality young players. Those two guys, Beltre and Washburn, could land Seattle a future star from a team desperate to make the playoffs. But both will walk at season's end if the Mariners continue to win. So stop winning already.
Then there's the LHP Erik Bedard situation, a guy who may present the toughest choice of all for Zduriencik. He's throwing well, as the Mariners had hoped he would when they (Bavasi) gave up the farm to get him last spring. He's so valuable as a young, hard-throwing left-hander. He's among the leaders in strikeouts, ERA and should be in wins. Teams would be in a bidding war to get him come July 31.
However, how would Zduriencik justify a trade of an 'ace' pitcher if his team is a contender? How does it make sense to bring in a bunch of future prospects for a current dominant big-league pitcher? It doesn't, on the surface.
But if Zduriencik decides to roll the dice and have Bedard be part of the Mariners' run to the post-season, it'll likely be the wrong choice. Bedard, who could generate good returns, is not about to sign a long term deal with the Mariners. The club would not only not be fully compensated, they'd look back at what he cost them beyond that, such as PF Adam Jones, LHP George Sherrill and RHP Chris Tillman, among others.
As much as it would damage the team's hopes, I would trade Bedard as soon as possible for the right deal. I'd do it some time just after the All-Star break. And I wouldn't care if Zduriencik brought in guys who won't reach the big leagues for another two, three years. I trust that he will bring in quality guys, however.
Frankly, I think Bedard is a loser. I don't think this team can win with him. He's a little like Alex Rodriguez, the ultimate cooler. Having said that, it's still a tough call if the Mariners are contenters because the fans would howl over such a deal.
He needs to be careful around trading time. I would move Bedard but then not Washburn. He can't do both unless the club is reeling. Certainly, if he can get anything for Miguel Batista, Kenji Johjima, Carlos Silva or even Jeff Clement, I would do it. Not likely.
The good news is if Zduriencik makes the right choices, the Mariners would be solidly on their three-year recovery program. They likely will have brought in a contributor or two to the team next season. They will have freed up plenty of cash with the elimination of Bedard's (future) salary, Beltre (if not re-signed), Batista (end of that pathetic deal) and Washburn (end of that deal). Johjima and Silva (Bavsai's lasting legacy) would be the only two significant salaries they would be burdened with. And perhaps they can find some way to move those.
So flush with cash, they can long-term Felix Hernandez and seek out a free-agent pitcher and hitter. They will have RHP Josh Fields and RHP Phillipe Aumont contending for staff spots next season, perhap re-thinking Brandon Morrow's role - or trade value. They also likely will draft a player next month with the No. 2 pick who can step into the big leagues sometime next season.
But before any of that happens, Zduriencik has a long stretch of hurdles to clear.
