It looks like there will be another small induction class next July for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Maybe no more than one.
My BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot arrived in the mail over the weekend and of all the newly eligible players only will get my vote. Rickey Henderson. He's a first-ballot guy. For sure. He holds the all-time baseball records for steals (1,406) and runs (2,295). He's second in walks (2,190) to Barry Bonds (2,558). Henderson changed the game. He dominated the game. I expect him to give his typical third-person-style speech at Cooperstown in 2009.
But it is a interesting year for balloting, a pivotal year. Here are some thoughts on the Hall of Fame:
* The other first-time players eligible this year are: Jay Bell, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn and Matt Williams. Can a case be made for any of those? Orosco and Plesac rank 69 and 59, respectively, in career saves. Neither Bell, Gant, Grace, Williams or the Vaughns have stacked up enough numbers. Cone never even won 200 games. Grace, who had a .303 career average, may be the only other one with a outside chance - some day.
* This means the clock is running down for Edgar Martinez. His five-year waiting period ends next December. It reminds me of one of the last road trips I took with the Mariners. After the game, we were in a hotel bar in Tampa and I may have had one too many root beers. But I told Edgar that he was a first-ballot guy for me. I'll follow through on that next year but I'm not sure many others will. He's going to have to wait for a few years. His numbers are not as strong by comparison to most already in there, but resistance on his mostly DH career will diminish over the years and I think he'll get in.
* My voting resistance to Jim Rice might mean the difference to him getting in. I have never voted for him for various reasons, although I've seriously weighed his numbers every year (.298 career average, 382 HR, 1,451 RBI, 2,452 hits, 1978 MVP and five top five MVP votes). His voting percentage has increased almost every year. He reached 72.2 percent of the needed 75 percent last year. This is his final year of eligibility. I could be swayed this time.
* Having said that, I'm of the opinion that votes shouldn't change from year to year. Their numbers don't. But perhaps time gives you a new perspective on Hall worthiness. So while I may for once vote for Rice I'll also continue to vote for other players as I have each year. I have voted for Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven and Andre Dawson in the past and likely will again. Guys who I may give another long look at are Tommy John and Mark McGwire.
* McGwire is always a tough one. He set the home run record with 70 in 1998 and finished with 583 career home runs. Those are huge numbers. But there were the steroids rumors, the meager .263 career average and just 1,667 hits. Just not good enough in the big picture.
* I'm not a big fan of closers. I didn't vote for Goose Gossage last year or Jeff Reardon and I don't remember if I ver voted for some eligible closers such as Lee Smith or Rod Beck. That position will be tested over the next decade when some of the all-time saves leaders become eligible such as Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, John Franco, Billy Wagner and Troy Percival.
* In another year or two, Ken Griffey Jr. will start his five-year clock. That also may be true for Randy Johnson. Both are first-ballot guys. Would that be something for Mariners fans if both are in the same class?