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Phillies in five? Hold that thought
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Nothing in my rational head tells me that the Tampa Rays will win tonight, to delay Philadelphia from winning its first World Series title since 1980. Everything is to the Phillies advantage.
The Phillies will start Cole Hamels, their best pitcher who had been almost untouchable in the post-season (4-0). Slugger Ryan Howard has been unleashed (five RBI Sunday). He's a hitting monster now. Citizens Bank Park is a tough place to play for an opponent. The Phillies have won two straight at home and are churning with momentum. They won 10-2 Sunday. The Rays' best hitters are hitless. The Rays are so young, they seem bewildered. The media and the baseball experts are overwhelmingly focusing on the Phillies in five.
No one but a fool would think the Rays have a chance. I guess I'm a fool (or maybe I will be after tonight). I just can't go there yet. Maybe it's goes to my contrarian view on things. I'm like that when I buy stocks. At times, I'll go against the prevailing wisdom and trends. If the fundamentals are still sound, I'll take a chance with stocks of downtrodden companies.
Now I'm not completely convinced that this is a sane approach, with so many factors in the Phillies' favor. But I've seen this sort of situation in the past, where a heavy underdog in the Super Bowl or World Series or Final Four overcomes all obstacles and prevails. It's rare, but we've seen it happen.
There is a law of averages in play here. Will Hamels continue to be so dominant? Will Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena go hitless (0 for 29)? Can Rays' starter Scott Kazmir keep the Phillies hitters in the park? Can Brad Lidge go through an entire season without one blown save (41 for 41)?
For me, the key will be for the Rays to score early on Hamels, and not just a run or two. Get ahead by three or four by the third inning against their best pitcher. That will restore their confidence and curb the Phillies' momentum and have them questioning themselves. If they can't do that, I don't see the Rays winning if the game is tied or close in the late innings. Not with Lidge in the bullpen.
I'll take the Rays' tonight on a contrarian play Although if you saw my portfolio right now you might not put much stock in my logic.
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