Several 2008 Chasers could miss the 2009 Chase

The 2008 cast of Chase for the Championship contenders was far from surprising. There were no championship chasing newbies as there were in 2005, 2006, and 2007.  In fact, among the twelve drivers, there were nine total championships prior to the completion of the 2008 campaign, ten if you count Jimmie Johnson’s latest trophy. 

Meanwhile, outside of the Chase for the Championship, there were a few drivers making some noise, most notably David Ragan.  If there is one thing you can count on, it is the fact that the exact same twelve drivers that qualified for the Chase for the Championship in 2008 will not qualify in 2009.  There will be at least two drivers that miss out, while two more join the twelve man fraternity. 

Tony Stewart leads the group that is most likely to miss the 2009 Chase for the Championship.  This is definitely not due to lack of talent, as even Smoke’s detractors will admit that he is one of the most gifted drivers in the garage.  However, you have to consider his new set of circumstances.  Stewart is part-owner of Stewart-Haas Racing, formerly Haas CNC Racing.  Not only does Stewart have the unenviable burden of administering a Sprint Cup series operation, but he is taking over a ride that finished 43^rd in the Sprint Cup owner’s standings.  Sure, Stewart is in a completely different league than Johnny Sauter, Tony Raines, and Jason Leffler, but he does not have a magic wand.  This new ownership deal is a project, and a challenging one at that. 

Of course, Stewart could very well qualify for the Chase for the Championship, and it would be a surprise to no one.  However, would it really be that surprising if he misses out?

Clint Bowyer is another driver that could miss the 2009 Chase for the Championship.  Bowyer barely qualified for the twelve man show in 2008, as he failed to improve upon his breakthrough season in 2007.  In 2009, Bowyer has been reassigned to Richard Childress Racing’s fourth team, the #33 General Mills Chevrolet.  After a successful pairing with Gil Martin that dates back to 2005 in the Nationwide Series, Bowyer must become acclimated with a new voice and perhaps a new philosophy.  Shane Wilson will guide Bowyer and the 33 team in 2009.  Casey Mears will assume driving duties of Bowyer’s former ride, the #07 Jack Daniel’s Chevrolet.

Like Stewart, it is logical to believe that Bowyer will qualify for the Chase for the Championship.  However, the ‘gettin’ to know you’ process with Wilson and the rest of the team must be short and sweet.  We all know that once Bowyer gets into the Chase for the Championship, he is dangerous, as he finished third in 2007, and fifth in 2008.   

Denny Hamlin gave us no reason to doubt that he can qualify for the Chase for the Championship in 2009; at the same, he gave us no reason to believe that he is a lock to get in either.  Hamlin’s performances throughout the 2008 season and into the Chase were patchy.  You never knew which Denny was going to show up. 

At 28, Hamlin is now the veteran leader at Joe Gibbs Racing, so he must perform at a higher level if he wants to earn and maintain the respect from his younger teammates. 

Judging by the way Dale Earnhardt Jr’s season ended, the lack of momentum could hurt this team if it carries on into the 2009 campaign.  Matt Kenseth is another driver that could come up short, if for no other reason than the law of averages.  He is so consistent year in and year out that it seems as if he is bound for one year of inconsistencies.  Kenseth and Johnson are the only two drivers to qualify for the Chase in every season of its existence. 

As mentioned earlier, Ragan is a prime candidate to replace any fallen Chaser.  Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, Brian Vickers, Kasey Kahne, and Mark Martin all have the potential to kick a 2008 Chaser outside the cutoff.