NASCAR preseason top 40 countdown (part IV)
We have finally arrived at the top ten drivers heading into the 2009 Sprint Cup season.
10. 11-Denny Hamlin, Federal Express Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing
It is time for Denny Hamlin to step into the next phase in his career, which is emerging as a genuine championship threat. Thus far in his career, Hamlin has qualified for the Chase for the Championship in each of his three full seasons; however, his performance tends to wane during the final ten races. Hamlin has the skill and equipment to win championships, but for some reason, he has yet to peak at the right time. He tends to thrive on the short and flat tracks, while his performances on the intermediate tracks are hit or miss. If they cannot find a comfortable balance on the 1.5-milers, they will linger towards the bottom half of the top 10. Furthermore, several teams and drivers that typically run behind Hamlin are making gains, which means that Hamlin must hit on all cylinders if he intends to appear in his fourth championship chase.
2008 prediction - 9
2008 result - 8
9. 31-Jeff Burton, Caterpillar Chevrolet
Richard Childress Racing
He is referred to by his peers as ‘the Mayor’. Jeff Burton has involuntarily emerged as the veteran voice in the Sprint Cup garage. Every driver and crewmember respects the candid and insightful driver. On the track, Burton has resurfaced as a perennial championship contender. He may not have the fastest car, but Burton brings it home in one piece, and generally finishes better than he runs. In season’s past, Burton is able to hang with the championship leaders throughout the first half of the Chase, only the fade down the stretch. Usually, they are just not fast enough to hang with the likes of Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards for ten races. While RCR is consistent, the organization lags behind Hendrick and Roush when it comes to speed. That must change if Burton is to ever clinch the Sprint Cup title.
2008 prediction - 15
2008 result - 6
8. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr, AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet
Hendrick Motorsports
Up until July, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s relocation to Hendrick Motorsports appeared genius, as he scored eleven top ten finishes in the first fifteen races, including his win at Michigan. At the time, Earnhardt Jr was sitting in the third position in the championship standings. After he won his first and only race of the season, his performance began to rapidly decline, and the critics quickly dismissed his superb first half of the season. Earnhardt Jr’s introductory season in HMS equipment was considered by many as a flop, and crew chief Tony Eury Jr absorbed much of the blame. It seemed as if Earnhardt Jr and Eury were unable to hit on the right adjustments, or adjust to changing track conditions during a race. They must improve that facet of their program. The pressure will be on Earnhardt Jr and Eury in 2009, as they are expected to contend for the championship now that they are provided with the best equipment in the business.
2008 prediction - 7
2008 result - 12
7. 17-Matt Kenseth, DEWALT Ford
Roush Fenway Racing
File his winless 2008 season in the ‘I didn’t see that coming’ folder. Kenseth is one of those drivers is not going to win six or seven races a year, but you can almost count on at least one victory. It is not as if Kenseth had an off-year; as usual, he was consistent. He was one of only four drivers to score twenty or more top ten finishes in 2008. Kenseth and the No. 17 team were just a step or two behind his teammates Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle for most of the season. In 2009, do not expect another winless season for Kenseth. Expect this team to return to victory lane, and perhaps contend for the Sprint Cup championship.
2008 prediction - 1
2008 result - 11
6. 29-Kevin Harvick, Shell Pennzoil Chevrolet
Richard Childress Racing
Kevin Harvick failed to win race in 2008, but he was in good company. Kenseth and Jeff Gordon encountered the dreaded doughnut in the win column as well. While Harvick and his team were reliable, they were in the same boat as their teammate Burton. They were simply not up front enough to contend on a regular basis. He was able to extend his remarkable streak to 80 races without a DNF. Harvick is one of the few drivers that can excel on all types of tracks, whether it is a short track, intermediate track, or road course. It is unlikely that he will undergo a consecutive winless season, and if this team can find some speed, he may sneak up on Johnson and Edward in the championship quest.
2008 prediction - 13
2008 result - 4
5. 24-Jeff Gordon, DuPont Chevrolet
Hendrick Motorsports
For all of the anti-Gordon fans overjoyed by his winless season…enjoy it while it lasts. It is highly doubtful that his winless skid will persist for much longer. Even though Gordon failed to win a race, his statistics were not too shabby when compared to his competition. Only three drivers scored more top five finishes than Gordon in 2008. Like Harvick and Kenseth, Gordon performed well week in and week out; however, he was rarely up front when it counted. It remains a mystery as to why the No. 48 team was so much faster than the rest of the HMS contingent, but there is no doubt that Gordon and the No. 24 will eventually figure out a fix for their shortfalls. Gordon will likely win multiple races in 2009, and could materialize as a championship threat.
2008 prediction - 3
2008 result - 7
4. 16-Greg Biffle, 3M Ford
Roush Fenway Racing
Several years ago, Biffle was a driver that was constantly on the edge and drove every lap as if it were his last. He still drives with the same assertiveness; however, he has been able to balance it with patience. For example, Biffle had a car that could pass Jimmie Johnson at Loudon last September. Instead of showing his hand too early and risk wearing down his tires, he delayed his attack. With roughly eleven or twelve laps to go, he made his move and won the race. That is the mode of mindset that could eventually win Biffle a Sprint Cup championship. If his results in the Chase were any indication, Biffle is finally a complete driver, and could formidably contend for the Sprint Cup title again in 2009.
2008 prediction - 16
2008 result - 3
3. 48-Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet
Hendrick Motorsports
After conquering the astounding three-peat, Jimmie Johnson will ‘soar for four’ in 2009. While you never want to bet against Johnson, it is difficult to fathom a driver winning four consecutive championships. However, no one would be shocked if Johnson once again hoists the Sprint Cup trophy in November. Whether it is a gift from the racing gods or sheer brilliance, this team always finds a way to win races and peak at the perfect time. While Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards enjoyed stretches of the season in which they appeared invincible, no driver has been able to match the season-long potency of Johnson. Most of the key components to Johnson’s championship team will return in 2009.
2008 prediction - 2
2008 result - 1
2. 18-Kyle Busch, M&M’s Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing
Up until the Chase for the Championship began, it seemed inevitable that Kyle Busch was going to capture his first Sprint Cup trophy. In fact, when he muscled past Johnson for the win at Chicagoland in July, many saw it as a symbolic passing of the torch. Well, Johnson was determined to keep the torch in his hands, meanwhile, Busch’s dream season turned into a nightmare. Mechanical woes were the story for Busch throughout the first few races of the Chase. Once the team overcame the mechanical discrepancies, they still were unable to compete with Johnson and Edwards. After the dust settled, Busch’s season was epic. He won 21 races combined if you include the Nationwide Series and Camping World Series. Busch may not amass as many trophies as he did in 2008, but do not expect another late-season collapse.
2008 prediction - 11
2008 result - 10
1. 99-Carl Edwards, Aflac Ford
Roush Fenway Racing
Sure, this is a conventional pick, but facts are facts and stats are stats. He led the Sprint Cup Series in wins, top five finishes, top ten finishes, and even driver rating. Edwards drives for one of the premier organizations, which has provided him with an ingenious crew chief. Clearly, Edwards and Bob Osborne are becoming one of the elite driver/crew chief combinations. He has the ‘win at all costs’ mentality, which can be a blessing as well as a burden. He ruffled some feathers in 2008, most notably Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, but most of his highlights were burnouts and back flips. Edwards leads the troupe of championship favorites heading into the 2009 Sprint Cup campaign, and if he does not win, he will be in the mix.
2008 prediction - 6
2008 result - 2
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NASCAR preseason top 40 countdown (part IV)
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